Recent polls, including a March 19-23 GQR survey of 600 likely voters showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 47%-42%, highlight the competitive Texas Senate Republican primary runoff set for May 26, driving fragmented trader pricing across tight margins. Paxton's edge stems from superior enthusiasm (85% of supporters at maximum intensity vs. 70% for Cornyn) and stronger favorability among Trump voters, positioning his 9%+ victory as the top outcome at 22%. Cornyn's incumbency advantages and uncertainty over a potential Trump endorsement—previously shown to swing polls dramatically—sustain odds for close races, with separation possible via late endorsements, ad spending shifts, or base turnout in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Paxton 9%+ 21.2%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 12.6%
Paxton 6–9% 13%
$44,533 Vol.
$44,533 Vol.
2026/05/25
Paxton 9%+
21%
Paxton 6–9%
13%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
12%
Cornyn <3%
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
14%
Paxton 9%+ 21.2%
Cornyn 9%+ 14%
Cornyn <3% 12.6%
Paxton 6–9% 13%
$44,533 Vol.
$44,533 Vol.
2026/05/25
Paxton 9%+
$8,606 Vol.
21%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,877 Vol.
13%
Paxton 3–6%
$4,439 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$5,829 Vol.
12%
Cornyn <3%
$3,512 Vol.
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,042 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,566 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$8,661 Vol.
14%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a March 19-23 GQR survey of 600 likely voters showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 47%-42%, highlight the competitive Texas Senate Republican primary runoff set for May 26, driving fragmented trader pricing across tight margins. Paxton's edge stems from superior enthusiasm (85% of supporters at maximum intensity vs. 70% for Cornyn) and stronger favorability among Trump voters, positioning his 9%+ victory as the top outcome at 22%. Cornyn's incumbency advantages and uncertainty over a potential Trump endorsement—previously shown to swing polls dramatically—sustain odds for close races, with separation possible via late endorsements, ad spending shifts, or base turnout in the final weeks.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
音量
$44,533終了日
2026/05/25マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including a March 19-23 GQR survey of 600 likely voters showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 47%-42%, highlight the competitive Texas Senate Republican primary runoff set for May 26, driving fragmented trader pricing across tight margins. Paxton's edge stems from superior enthusiasm (85% of supporters at maximum intensity vs. 70% for Cornyn) and stronger favorability among Trump voters, positioning his 9%+ victory as the top outcome at 22%. Cornyn's incumbency advantages and uncertainty over a potential Trump endorsement—previously shown to swing polls dramatically—sustain odds for close races, with separation possible via late endorsements, ad spending shifts, or base turnout in the final weeks.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$44,533終了日
2026/05/25マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a March 19-23 GQR survey of 600 likely voters showing Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 47%-42%, highlight the competitive Texas Senate Republican primary runoff set for May 26, driving fragmented trader pricing across tight margins. Paxton's edge stems from superior enthusiasm (85% of supporters at maximum intensity vs. 70% for Cornyn) and stronger favorability among Trump voters, positioning his 9%+ victory as the top outcome at 22%. Cornyn's incumbency advantages and uncertainty over a potential Trump endorsement—previously shown to swing polls dramatically—sustain odds for close races, with separation possible via late endorsements, ad spending shifts, or base turnout in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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