Market icon

2月までにハメネイが退く確率は__、1月には?

NEW

$14,969 出来高

Jan 31, 2026

ルール

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period ending by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28-over-50 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
取引量
$14,969
終了日
Jan 31, 2026
作成日
Jan 20, 2026, 11:56 AM ET

外部リンクに注意してください。

Market icon

2月までにハメネイが退く確率は__、1月には?

$14,969 出来高

Market icon

>30%

$9,651 出来高

10%

Market icon

>50%

$5,318 出来高

6%

について

取引量
$14,969
終了日
Jan 31, 2026
作成日
Jan 20, 2026, 11:56 AM ET

外部リンクに注意してください。