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次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

Market icon

次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 54%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領 18%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相 6.3%

スターマー - 英国首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,699,984 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 54%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領 18%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相 6.3%

スターマー - 英国首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,699,984 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相

$21,955 Vol.

54%

ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領

$16,015 Vol.

18%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相

$572,537 Vol.

6%

スターマー - 英国首相

$557,208 Vol.

5%

高市 - 日本の首相

$242,951 Vol.

3%

プーチン - ロシア大統領

$350,584 Vol.

2%

2027年以前なし

$9,948 Vol.

2%

ペトロ - コロンビア大統領

$12,654 Vol.

1%

ゼレンスキー - ウクライナ大統領

$11,005 Vol.

1%

トランプ - アメリカ大統領

$203,744 Vol.

1%

マクロン - フランス大統領

$67,140 Vol.

1%

習近平 - 中国共産党総書記

$39,413 Vol.

1%

アッバース - パレスチナ大統領

$57,592 Vol.

1%

サンチェス - スペイン首相

$11,040 Vol.

1%

ロドリゲス - ベネズエラ代理大統領

$20,309 Vol.

1%

ニューサム - カリフォルニア州知事

$112,634 Vol.

1%

ルコルニュ - フランス首相

$39,972 Vol.

1%

アル＝シャラー - シリア大統領

$27,640 Vol.

1%

エルドアン - トルコ大統領

$75,314 Vol.

<1%

アルバニージー - オーストラリア首相

$58,445 Vol.

<1%

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領

$39,890 Vol.

<1%

金正恩 - 北朝鮮最高指導者

$24,764 Vol.

<1%

メルツ - ドイツ首相

$28,572 Vol.

<1%

シェインバウム - メキシコ大統領

$64,125 Vol.

<1%

ミレイ - アルゼンチン大統領

$34,532 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54% to exit power before 2027, driven by tightening polls ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary election amid economic pressures, EU fund disputes, and growing opposition unity following recent local election gains by challengers. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting the island's deepening economic crisis, widespread blackouts, mass migration, and speculation over post-Castro succession amid protests after Hurricane Rafael's impact in late October. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% faces sustained domestic protests, judicial reform backlash, and fragile coalition risks from the ongoing Gaza conflict and Hezbollah escalations, though no snap election is imminent. Lower odds for others like Keir Starmer or Vladimir Putin signal perceived stability until their next electoral cycles post-2027.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,699,984
終了日
Dec 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54% to exit power before 2027, driven by tightening polls ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary election amid economic pressures, EU fund disputes, and growing opposition unity following recent local election gains by challengers. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting the island's deepening economic crisis, widespread blackouts, mass migration, and speculation over post-Castro succession amid protests after Hurricane Rafael's impact in late October. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% faces sustained domestic protests, judicial reform backlash, and fragile coalition risks from the ongoing Gaza conflict and Hezbollah escalations, though no snap election is imminent. Lower odds for others like Keir Starmer or Vladimir Putin signal perceived stability until their next electoral cycles post-2027.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54% to exit power before 2027, driven by tightening polls ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary election amid economic pressures, EU fund disputes, and growing opposition unity following recent local election gains by challengers. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting the island's deepening economic crisis, widespread blackouts, mass migration, and speculation over post-Castro succession amid protests after Hurricane Rafael's impact in late October. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.3% faces sustained domestic protests, judicial reform backlash, and fragile coalition risks from the ongoing Gaza conflict and Hezbollah escalations, though no snap election is imminent. Lower odds for others like Keir Starmer or Vladimir Putin signal perceived stability until their next electoral cycles post-2027.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」はPolymarket上の25個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「オルバン - ハンガリー首相」で54%、次いで「ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領」が18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、54¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に54%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」は$2.7 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 3, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている25個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「オルバン - ハンガリー首相」で54%であり、市場がこの結果に54%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ディアス＝カネル - キューバ大統領」で18%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「次のリーダーは2027年までに権力を失いますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。