Incumbent Democrat Alma Adams holds a commanding lead over Republican Nate Cashion in the NC-12 House race, with election night returns from November 5 showing approximately 72% for Adams and 28% for Cashion across nearly all precincts reported. This lopsided margin in the heavily Democratic-leaning district—anchored by urban Charlotte voters and strong Black turnout—drives trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the seat's D+24 partisan lean and Adams' incumbency advantage since 2014. Major networks have projected Adams' win, though official certification by the North Carolina State Board of Elections awaits in December; scenarios like a recount or legal challenge could theoretically shift odds but face high barriers given the wide margin and lack of irregularities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$13,904 Vol.
$13,904 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
$13,904 Vol.
$13,904 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$6,622 Vol.
92%
共和党
$7,281 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Alma Adams holds a commanding lead over Republican Nate Cashion in the NC-12 House race, with election night returns from November 5 showing approximately 72% for Adams and 28% for Cashion across nearly all precincts reported. This lopsided margin in the heavily Democratic-leaning district—anchored by urban Charlotte voters and strong Black turnout—drives trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the seat's D+24 partisan lean and Adams' incumbency advantage since 2014. Major networks have projected Adams' win, though official certification by the North Carolina State Board of Elections awaits in December; scenarios like a recount or legal challenge could theoretically shift odds but face high barriers given the wide margin and lack of irregularities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$13,904終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Alma Adams holds a commanding lead over Republican Nate Cashion in the NC-12 House race, with election night returns from November 5 showing approximately 72% for Adams and 28% for Cashion across nearly all precincts reported. This lopsided margin in the heavily Democratic-leaning district—anchored by urban Charlotte voters and strong Black turnout—drives trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the seat's D+24 partisan lean and Adams' incumbency advantage since 2014. Major networks have projected Adams' win, though official certification by the North Carolina State Board of Elections awaits in December; scenarios like a recount or legal challenge could theoretically shift odds but face high barriers given the wide margin and lack of irregularities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,904終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Alma Adams holds a commanding lead over Republican Nate Cashion in the NC-12 House race, with election night returns from November 5 showing approximately 72% for Adams and 28% for Cashion across nearly all precincts reported. This lopsided margin in the heavily Democratic-leaning district—anchored by urban Charlotte voters and strong Black turnout—drives trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party victory, reflecting the seat's D+24 partisan lean and Adams' incumbency advantage since 2014. Major networks have projected Adams' win, though official certification by the North Carolina State Board of Elections awaits in December; scenarios like a recount or legal challenge could theoretically shift odds but face high barriers given the wide margin and lack of irregularities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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