NASA's October 2024 decision to target Artemis II no earlier than September 2026 has sharply lowered trader consensus odds for earlier launch resolutions, driven by persistent Orion spacecraft issues including heat shield damage from Artemis I and life support anomalies. This four-astronaut lunar flyby mission, using the SLS rocket, faces compounded risks from battery failures and testing shortfalls, echoing years-long program delays. Upcoming wet dress rehearsals in spring 2025 and FY2026 funding battles amid political shifts could further sway probabilities, while SpaceX's Starship progress highlights competitive pressures on NASA's SLS-centric approach. Traders should monitor NASA briefings for slippage signals, as historical precedents show frequent timeline extensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$641,962 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
1%
4月30日
62%
$641,962 Vol.
3月31日
$161,551 Vol.
1%
4月30日
$101,711 Vol.
62%
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 20, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
音量
$641,962終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 20, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
音量
$641,962終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 20, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's October 2024 decision to target Artemis II no earlier than September 2026 has sharply lowered trader consensus odds for earlier launch resolutions, driven by persistent Orion spacecraft issues including heat shield damage from Artemis I and life support anomalies. This four-astronaut lunar flyby mission, using the SLS rocket, faces compounded risks from battery failures and testing shortfalls, echoing years-long program delays. Upcoming wet dress rehearsals in spring 2025 and FY2026 funding battles amid political shifts could further sway probabilities, while SpaceX's Starship progress highlights competitive pressures on NASA's SLS-centric approach. Traders should monitor NASA briefings for slippage signals, as historical precedents show frequent timeline extensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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