Traders favor "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a major space weather event—defined as G4+ geomagnetic storm or X-class solar flare—from March 22-28, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest 27-day outlook and 3-day forecasts showing quiet to unsettled conditions. Current solar wind speeds hover below 500 km/s with a southward Bz component unlikely, and no significant Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected via SOHO/LASCO imagery. Recent developments include minor M-class flares early last week, but solar activity has since waned amid Solar Cycle 25's moderate peak, with Kp index below 4. Historical March baselines rarely exceed G2 storms, reinforcing low odds absent sudden active region emergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日今週の主要な宇宙天気イベントは？ （ 3月22日～ 28日）
今週の主要な宇宙天気イベントは？ （ 3月22日～ 28日）
はい
NEW
NEW
Mar 28, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Mar 28, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Mar 16, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$3,977終了日
Mar 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$3,977終了日
Mar 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders favor "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a major space weather event—defined as G4+ geomagnetic storm or X-class solar flare—from March 22-28, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest 27-day outlook and 3-day forecasts showing quiet to unsettled conditions. Current solar wind speeds hover below 500 km/s with a southward Bz component unlikely, and no significant Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected via SOHO/LASCO imagery. Recent developments include minor M-class flares early last week, but solar activity has since waned amid Solar Cycle 25's moderate peak, with Kp index below 4. Historical March baselines rarely exceed G2 storms, reinforcing low odds absent sudden active region emergence.
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