Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee with over $4.7 million cash on hand, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+27 partisan lean and Smith's consistent 76% general election margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through March 2026 added three underfunded Democratic primary contenders—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—alongside a negligible GOP challenger, Johnathon Tune, with the filing deadline looming March 31 ahead of the August 4 primary. While structurally secure, a GOP primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$21,867 Vol.
$21,867 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$21,867 Vol.
$21,867 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$11,748 Vol.
94%
民主党
$10,119 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee with over $4.7 million cash on hand, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+27 partisan lean and Smith's consistent 76% general election margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through March 2026 added three underfunded Democratic primary contenders—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—alongside a negligible GOP challenger, Johnathon Tune, with the filing deadline looming March 31 ahead of the August 4 primary. While structurally secure, a GOP primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$21,867終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee with over $4.7 million cash on hand, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+27 partisan lean and Smith's consistent 76% general election margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through March 2026 added three underfunded Democratic primary contenders—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—alongside a negligible GOP challenger, Johnathon Tune, with the filing deadline looming March 31 ahead of the August 4 primary. While structurally secure, a GOP primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$21,867終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee with over $4.7 million cash on hand, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report amid an R+27 partisan lean and Smith's consistent 76% general election margins since 2013. Recent candidate filings through March 2026 added three underfunded Democratic primary contenders—Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard—alongside a negligible GOP challenger, Johnathon Tune, with the filing deadline looming March 31 ahead of the August 4 primary. While structurally secure, a GOP primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national midterm dynamics could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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