Trader consensus strongly implies military action against Iran will continue through March 31 (89.5%), driven by persistent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, including recent hits on regime assets in Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor earlier this month, with no ceasefire announcements or de-escalation signals from Tehran or Jerusalem. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks sustain the shadow war dynamic, while diplomatic channels remain tense post-October 2023 escalations. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or unilateral stand-downs, markets price low odds on an abrupt end before late March, though upcoming U.S.-brokered talks could shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日までの軍事行動 90%
3月31日 3.2%
3月30日 2.6%
3月29日 1.9%
$2,515,591 Vol.
$2,515,591 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
<1%
3月27日
<1%
3月28日
1%
3月29日
2%
3月30日
3%
3月31日
3%
3月31日までの軍事行動
90%
3月31日までの軍事行動 90%
3月31日 3.2%
3月30日 2.6%
3月29日 1.9%
$2,515,591 Vol.
$2,515,591 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月26日
$326,235 Vol.
<1%
3月27日
$319,638 Vol.
<1%
3月28日
$303,764 Vol.
1%
3月29日
$258,114 Vol.
2%
3月30日
$273,134 Vol.
3%
3月31日
$357,752 Vol.
3%
3月31日までの軍事行動
$544,334 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly implies military action against Iran will continue through March 31 (89.5%), driven by persistent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, including recent hits on regime assets in Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor earlier this month, with no ceasefire announcements or de-escalation signals from Tehran or Jerusalem. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks sustain the shadow war dynamic, while diplomatic channels remain tense post-October 2023 escalations. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or unilateral stand-downs, markets price low odds on an abrupt end before late March, though upcoming U.S.-brokered talks could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$2,515,591終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly implies military action against Iran will continue through March 31 (89.5%), driven by persistent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, including recent hits on regime assets in Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor earlier this month, with no ceasefire announcements or de-escalation signals from Tehran or Jerusalem. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks sustain the shadow war dynamic, while diplomatic channels remain tense post-October 2023 escalations. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or unilateral stand-downs, markets price low odds on an abrupt end before late March, though upcoming U.S.-brokered talks could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,515,591終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus strongly implies military action against Iran will continue through March 31 (89.5%), driven by persistent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, including recent hits on regime assets in Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor earlier this month, with no ceasefire announcements or de-escalation signals from Tehran or Jerusalem. Ongoing proxy clashes via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks sustain the shadow war dynamic, while diplomatic channels remain tense post-October 2023 escalations. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or unilateral stand-downs, markets price low odds on an abrupt end before late March, though upcoming U.S.-brokered talks could shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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