Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—no further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past three weeks. Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact, affirming the matter as "concluded" while reserving retaliation rights, amid U.S. diplomatic efforts to curb escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Regional de-escalation signals include Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire negotiations and restrained Houthi responses to U.S. strikes, though Iranian proxy activities persist. Upcoming factors include potential Iranian reprisals, nuclear talks, or policy shifts post-U.S. vote, keeping the risk of renewed hostilities alive despite current lull.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$156,122 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
2%
March 29
3%
March 30
4%
March 31
4%
4月15日
29%
4月30日
54%
5月31日
69%
6月30日
77%
$156,122 Vol.
March 26
$20,013 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,825 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$15,839 Vol.
2%
March 29
$20,050 Vol.
3%
March 30
$16,159 Vol.
4%
March 31
$74,579 Vol.
4%
4月15日
$564 Vol.
29%
4月30日
$2 Vol.
54%
5月31日
$1,088 Vol.
69%
6月30日
$2 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—no further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past three weeks. Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact, affirming the matter as "concluded" while reserving retaliation rights, amid U.S. diplomatic efforts to curb escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Regional de-escalation signals include Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire negotiations and restrained Houthi responses to U.S. strikes, though Iranian proxy activities persist. Upcoming factors include potential Iranian reprisals, nuclear talks, or policy shifts post-U.S. vote, keeping the risk of renewed hostilities alive despite current lull.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$156,122終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—no further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past three weeks. Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact, affirming the matter as "concluded" while reserving retaliation rights, amid U.S. diplomatic efforts to curb escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Regional de-escalation signals include Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire negotiations and restrained Houthi responses to U.S. strikes, though Iranian proxy activities persist. Upcoming factors include potential Iranian reprisals, nuclear talks, or policy shifts post-U.S. vote, keeping the risk of renewed hostilities alive despite current lull.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$156,122終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel—no further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past three weeks. Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact, affirming the matter as "concluded" while reserving retaliation rights, amid U.S. diplomatic efforts to curb escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Regional de-escalation signals include Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire negotiations and restrained Houthi responses to U.S. strikes, though Iranian proxy activities persist. Upcoming factors include potential Iranian reprisals, nuclear talks, or policy shifts post-U.S. vote, keeping the risk of renewed hostilities alive despite current lull.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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