Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since avoided further escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and signaling potential restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and the transition to a Trump administration, which has vowed a hardline stance on Iran. No new strikes have occurred in the past month, though proxy conflicts via Hezbollah and Houthis persist, alongside threats of Iranian retaliation. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks from ongoing Gaza operations, Lebanon border clashes, and possible naval disruptions in the Red Sea, with no formal ceasefire negotiations underway.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$150,991 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
3%
March 30
4%
March 31
6%
4月15日
29%
4月30日
54%
5月31日
61%
6月30日
77%
$150,991 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,785 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$14,122 Vol.
3%
March 29
$20,050 Vol.
3%
March 30
$16,159 Vol.
4%
March 31
$72,111 Vol.
6%
4月15日
$560 Vol.
29%
4月30日
$2 Vol.
54%
5月31日
$223 Vol.
61%
6月30日
$2 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since avoided further escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and signaling potential restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and the transition to a Trump administration, which has vowed a hardline stance on Iran. No new strikes have occurred in the past month, though proxy conflicts via Hezbollah and Houthis persist, alongside threats of Iranian retaliation. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks from ongoing Gaza operations, Lebanon border clashes, and possible naval disruptions in the Red Sea, with no formal ceasefire negotiations underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
音量
$150,991終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since avoided further escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and signaling potential restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and the transition to a Trump administration, which has vowed a hardline stance on Iran. No new strikes have occurred in the past month, though proxy conflicts via Hezbollah and Houthis persist, alongside threats of Iranian retaliation. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks from ongoing Gaza operations, Lebanon border clashes, and possible naval disruptions in the Red Sea, with no formal ceasefire negotiations underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$150,991終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since avoided further escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and signaling potential restraint amid U.S. diplomatic pressure and the transition to a Trump administration, which has vowed a hardline stance on Iran. No new strikes have occurred in the past month, though proxy conflicts via Hezbollah and Houthis persist, alongside threats of Iranian retaliation. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against risks from ongoing Gaza operations, Lebanon border clashes, and possible naval disruptions in the Red Sea, with no formal ceasefire negotiations underway.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問