Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of some 200 missiles at Israel. Both sides have since signaled restraint, with Iran reporting minimal damage and no immediate retaliation, amid ongoing Israeli operations against Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Diplomatic efforts center on Gaza ceasefire talks, potentially reducing escalation risks, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and prospective UN Security Council discussions could shape future postures. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over proxy dynamics and potential Iranian responses driving odds on timelines for de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$144,646 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
5%
March 30
8%
March 31
11%
4月15日
32%
4月30日
55%
5月31日
53%
6月30日
77%
$144,646 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,575 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$13,732 Vol.
3%
March 29
$19,495 Vol.
5%
March 30
$15,355 Vol.
8%
March 31
$67,877 Vol.
11%
4月15日
$486 Vol.
32%
4月30日
$0 Vol.
55%
5月31日
$148 Vol.
53%
6月30日
$0 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of some 200 missiles at Israel. Both sides have since signaled restraint, with Iran reporting minimal damage and no immediate retaliation, amid ongoing Israeli operations against Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Diplomatic efforts center on Gaza ceasefire talks, potentially reducing escalation risks, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and prospective UN Security Council discussions could shape future postures. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over proxy dynamics and potential Iranian responses driving odds on timelines for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
音量
$144,646終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of some 200 missiles at Israel. Both sides have since signaled restraint, with Iran reporting minimal damage and no immediate retaliation, amid ongoing Israeli operations against Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Diplomatic efforts center on Gaza ceasefire talks, potentially reducing escalation risks, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and prospective UN Security Council discussions could shape future postures. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over proxy dynamics and potential Iranian responses driving odds on timelines for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$144,646終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 barrage of some 200 missiles at Israel. Both sides have since signaled restraint, with Iran reporting minimal damage and no immediate retaliation, amid ongoing Israeli operations against Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Diplomatic efforts center on Gaza ceasefire talks, potentially reducing escalation risks, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and prospective UN Security Council discussions could shape future postures. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over proxy dynamics and potential Iranian responses driving odds on timelines for de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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