Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-quarter leading indicators including January's IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month and industrial production decline of 1.1%, alongside ongoing manufacturing PMI readings below 50 signaling contraction through February. This follows Q4 2025's robust 0.9% quarter-over-quarter expansion, but highlights a slowdown amid tepid private consumption and export momentum tied to softening U.S. demand. Consensus full-year 2026 forecasts from Banxico (1.6%) and BBVA Research (1.8%) anticipate later recovery, supported by resilient labor markets; INEGI's Q1 GDP release, typically late April, remains the key catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0.5〜1.0% 43%
1.0～1.5％ 30%
0.0～0.5％ 21.2%
2.0～2.5% 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/30
0.0%未満
4%
0.0～0.5％
21%
0.5〜1.0%
43%
1.0～1.5％
30%
1.5～2.0％
8%
2.0～2.5%
14%
>2.5％
3%
0.5〜1.0% 43%
1.0～1.5％ 30%
0.0～0.5％ 21.2%
2.0～2.5% 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/30
0.0%未満
$192 Vol.
4%
0.0～0.5％
$278 Vol.
21%
0.5〜1.0%
$351 Vol.
43%
1.0～1.5％
$376 Vol.
30%
1.5～2.0％
$169 Vol.
8%
2.0～2.5%
$0 Vol.
14%
>2.5％
$127 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-quarter leading indicators including January's IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month and industrial production decline of 1.1%, alongside ongoing manufacturing PMI readings below 50 signaling contraction through February. This follows Q4 2025's robust 0.9% quarter-over-quarter expansion, but highlights a slowdown amid tepid private consumption and export momentum tied to softening U.S. demand. Consensus full-year 2026 forecasts from Banxico (1.6%) and BBVA Research (1.8%) anticipate later recovery, supported by resilient labor markets; INEGI's Q1 GDP release, typically late April, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
音量
$1,493終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-quarter leading indicators including January's IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month and industrial production decline of 1.1%, alongside ongoing manufacturing PMI readings below 50 signaling contraction through February. This follows Q4 2025's robust 0.9% quarter-over-quarter expansion, but highlights a slowdown amid tepid private consumption and export momentum tied to softening U.S. demand. Consensus full-year 2026 forecasts from Banxico (1.6%) and BBVA Research (1.8%) anticipate later recovery, supported by resilient labor markets; INEGI's Q1 GDP release, typically late April, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,493終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting weak early-quarter leading indicators including January's IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month and industrial production decline of 1.1%, alongside ongoing manufacturing PMI readings below 50 signaling contraction through February. This follows Q4 2025's robust 0.9% quarter-over-quarter expansion, but highlights a slowdown amid tepid private consumption and export momentum tied to softening U.S. demand. Consensus full-year 2026 forecasts from Banxico (1.6%) and BBVA Research (1.8%) anticipate later recovery, supported by resilient labor markets; INEGI's Q1 GDP release, typically late April, remains the key catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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