Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy leads in his campaign's March 12 poll for the closed GOP primary on May 16, positioning him favorably against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming amid intra-party clashes over Cassidy's past impeachment vote. Louisiana's deep-red status—evident in Trump's dominant 2024 margins and historical incumbency advantages—drives trader consensus toward a Republican general election victory on November 3, with Democrats lacking a competitive contender. Recent closed primary rules limit participation to Republicans and no-party voters selecting a GOP ballot, potentially boosting turnout efficiency for the nominee. A fragmented anti-Cassidy vote risks a runoff, but any GOP winner faces steep odds against a Democratic upset absent national wave or scandal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
90%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$1,641 Vol.
90%
民主党
$2,147 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy leads in his campaign's March 12 poll for the closed GOP primary on May 16, positioning him favorably against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming amid intra-party clashes over Cassidy's past impeachment vote. Louisiana's deep-red status—evident in Trump's dominant 2024 margins and historical incumbency advantages—drives trader consensus toward a Republican general election victory on November 3, with Democrats lacking a competitive contender. Recent closed primary rules limit participation to Republicans and no-party voters selecting a GOP ballot, potentially boosting turnout efficiency for the nominee. A fragmented anti-Cassidy vote risks a runoff, but any GOP winner faces steep odds against a Democratic upset absent national wave or scandal.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$3,788終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy leads in his campaign's March 12 poll for the closed GOP primary on May 16, positioning him favorably against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming amid intra-party clashes over Cassidy's past impeachment vote. Louisiana's deep-red status—evident in Trump's dominant 2024 margins and historical incumbency advantages—drives trader consensus toward a Republican general election victory on November 3, with Democrats lacking a competitive contender. Recent closed primary rules limit participation to Republicans and no-party voters selecting a GOP ballot, potentially boosting turnout efficiency for the nominee. A fragmented anti-Cassidy vote risks a runoff, but any GOP winner faces steep odds against a Democratic upset absent national wave or scandal.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$3,788終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy leads in his campaign's March 12 poll for the closed GOP primary on May 16, positioning him favorably against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming amid intra-party clashes over Cassidy's past impeachment vote. Louisiana's deep-red status—evident in Trump's dominant 2024 margins and historical incumbency advantages—drives trader consensus toward a Republican general election victory on November 3, with Democrats lacking a competitive contender. Recent closed primary rules limit participation to Republicans and no-party voters selecting a GOP ballot, potentially boosting turnout efficiency for the nominee. A fragmented anti-Cassidy vote risks a runoff, but any GOP winner faces steep odds against a Democratic upset absent national wave or scandal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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