Trader consensus reflects low expectations for a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by the lengthy legislative process ahead despite recent bipartisan action. On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the "Prediction Markets are Gambling Act," amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, amid concerns over gambling circumvention. However, the bill remains at introduction stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, while CFTC's March guidance and advance notice of proposed rulemaking—comments due April 30—signal regulatory oversight rather than outright bans. State-level moves, like Massachusetts' January prohibition, have not spurred federal momentum, and industry responses including self-imposed insider trading curbs further diminish enactment prospects before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/06/30
はい
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects low expectations for a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by the lengthy legislative process ahead despite recent bipartisan action. On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the "Prediction Markets are Gambling Act," amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, amid concerns over gambling circumvention. However, the bill remains at introduction stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, while CFTC's March guidance and advance notice of proposed rulemaking—comments due April 30—signal regulatory oversight rather than outright bans. State-level moves, like Massachusetts' January prohibition, have not spurred federal momentum, and industry responses including self-imposed insider trading curbs further diminish enactment prospects before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$9,357終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects low expectations for a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by the lengthy legislative process ahead despite recent bipartisan action. On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the "Prediction Markets are Gambling Act," amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, amid concerns over gambling circumvention. However, the bill remains at introduction stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, while CFTC's March guidance and advance notice of proposed rulemaking—comments due April 30—signal regulatory oversight rather than outright bans. State-level moves, like Massachusetts' January prohibition, have not spurred federal momentum, and industry responses including self-imposed insider trading curbs further diminish enactment prospects before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$9,357終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects low expectations for a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by the lengthy legislative process ahead despite recent bipartisan action. On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the "Prediction Markets are Gambling Act," amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, amid concerns over gambling circumvention. However, the bill remains at introduction stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, while CFTC's March guidance and advance notice of proposed rulemaking—comments due April 30—signal regulatory oversight rather than outright bans. State-level moves, like Massachusetts' January prohibition, have not spurred federal momentum, and industry responses including self-imposed insider trading curbs further diminish enactment prospects before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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