Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries at 40% and over 15 at 38%, reflecting early upsets in the March 3 Texas primary where Rep. Dan Crenshaw fell to challenger Steve Toth and Rep. Wesley Hunt was also defeated, amid base dissatisfaction and absent Trump endorsements for some. These results, alongside fears of further losses eroding the GOP's razor-thin House majority, have heightened scrutiny on vulnerable incumbents in upcoming contests like Florida's April 15 primary and California's March top-two. With over 35 Republican retirements shrinking the at-risk pool but spirited challenges persisting, dynamics remain tight until more results clarify the scale of primary turbulence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3未満 12.7%
10〜12 3.0%
13〜15 <1%
4～6 0
NEW
NEW
3未満
13%
4～6
33%
7〜9
40%
10〜12
3%
13〜15
25%
>15
38%
3未満 12.7%
10〜12 3.0%
13〜15 <1%
4～6 0
NEW
NEW
3未満
$0 Vol.
13%
4～6
$0 Vol.
33%
7〜9
$0 Vol.
40%
10〜12
$0 Vol.
3%
13〜15
$0 Vol.
25%
>15
$0 Vol.
38%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries at 40% and over 15 at 38%, reflecting early upsets in the March 3 Texas primary where Rep. Dan Crenshaw fell to challenger Steve Toth and Rep. Wesley Hunt was also defeated, amid base dissatisfaction and absent Trump endorsements for some. These results, alongside fears of further losses eroding the GOP's razor-thin House majority, have heightened scrutiny on vulnerable incumbents in upcoming contests like Florida's April 15 primary and California's March top-two. With over 35 Republican retirements shrinking the at-risk pool but spirited challenges persisting, dynamics remain tight until more results clarify the scale of primary turbulence.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
音量
$0マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries at 40% and over 15 at 38%, reflecting early upsets in the March 3 Texas primary where Rep. Dan Crenshaw fell to challenger Steve Toth and Rep. Wesley Hunt was also defeated, amid base dissatisfaction and absent Trump endorsements for some. These results, alongside fears of further losses eroding the GOP's razor-thin House majority, have heightened scrutiny on vulnerable incumbents in upcoming contests like Florida's April 15 primary and California's March top-two. With over 35 Republican retirements shrinking the at-risk pool but spirited challenges persisting, dynamics remain tight until more results clarify the scale of primary turbulence.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
音量
$0マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 7-9 Republican House incumbents losing primaries at 40% and over 15 at 38%, reflecting early upsets in the March 3 Texas primary where Rep. Dan Crenshaw fell to challenger Steve Toth and Rep. Wesley Hunt was also defeated, amid base dissatisfaction and absent Trump endorsements for some. These results, alongside fears of further losses eroding the GOP's razor-thin House majority, have heightened scrutiny on vulnerable incumbents in upcoming contests like Florida's April 15 primary and California's March top-two. With over 35 Republican retirements shrinking the at-risk pool but spirited challenges persisting, dynamics remain tight until more results clarify the scale of primary turbulence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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