Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 24-27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 (27.5% implied probability), with 28-31 close behind at 22%, reflecting 20 confirmed announcements as of mid-April—primarily retirees like Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi alongside Senate challengers such as Angie Craig and Chris Pappas—against historical late-cycle surges. The tight race persists due to a recent lull in disclosures over the past 30 days, amid an overall record 55 House retirements (35 Republicans), leaving uncertainty as state primary filing deadlines loom from May through summer. A cluster of exits from vulnerable districts or competitive battlegrounds could push toward 32+, while sustained Democratic unity might cap below 24.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日24～27 28%
28～31 22%
20〜23 16.8%
32〜35 14.1%
$27,937 Vol.
$27,937 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
2%
20〜23
17%
24～27
28%
28～31
22%
32〜35
14%
36～39
6%
40人以上
10%
24～27 28%
28～31 22%
20〜23 16.8%
32〜35 14.1%
$27,937 Vol.
$27,937 Vol.
2026/08/31
20未満
$15,389 Vol.
2%
20〜23
$4,830 Vol.
17%
24～27
$3,412 Vol.
28%
28～31
$1,164 Vol.
22%
32〜35
$3,142 Vol.
14%
36～39
$0 Vol.
6%
40人以上
$0 Vol.
10%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 24-27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 (27.5% implied probability), with 28-31 close behind at 22%, reflecting 20 confirmed announcements as of mid-April—primarily retirees like Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi alongside Senate challengers such as Angie Craig and Chris Pappas—against historical late-cycle surges. The tight race persists due to a recent lull in disclosures over the past 30 days, amid an overall record 55 House retirements (35 Republicans), leaving uncertainty as state primary filing deadlines loom from May through summer. A cluster of exits from vulnerable districts or competitive battlegrounds could push toward 32+, while sustained Democratic unity might cap below 24.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$27,937終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 24-27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 (27.5% implied probability), with 28-31 close behind at 22%, reflecting 20 confirmed announcements as of mid-April—primarily retirees like Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi alongside Senate challengers such as Angie Craig and Chris Pappas—against historical late-cycle surges. The tight race persists due to a recent lull in disclosures over the past 30 days, amid an overall record 55 House retirements (35 Republicans), leaving uncertainty as state primary filing deadlines loom from May through summer. A cluster of exits from vulnerable districts or competitive battlegrounds could push toward 32+, while sustained Democratic unity might cap below 24.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$27,937終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 24-27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 (27.5% implied probability), with 28-31 close behind at 22%, reflecting 20 confirmed announcements as of mid-April—primarily retirees like Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi alongside Senate challengers such as Angie Craig and Chris Pappas—against historical late-cycle surges. The tight race persists due to a recent lull in disclosures over the past 30 days, amid an overall record 55 House retirements (35 Republicans), leaving uncertainty as state primary filing deadlines loom from May through summer. A cluster of exits from vulnerable districts or competitive battlegrounds could push toward 32+, while sustained Democratic unity might cap below 24.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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