Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its record $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer—dwarfing rivals—and Elon Musk's repeated hints at a Starlink spin-off public listing in 2025 or 2026 to unlock liquidity amid booming satellite internet revenue. xAI trails at 25.5%, buoyed by its ascent to a $50 billion valuation in a November private round and Musk's aggressive AI expansion via Grok model releases, though full IPO timelines remain speculative. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.3%) face governance hurdles and regulatory scrutiny delaying paths to public markets, while lower-tier options like Databricks lack comparable scale. Watch Musk's updates and funding announcements as key catalysts ahead of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日スペースX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 4.2%
クラーケン <1%
$1,386,598 Vol.
$1,386,598 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
88%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
4%
クラーケン
1%
Databricks
1%
Discord
1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Stripe
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
スペースX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 4.2%
クラーケン <1%
$1,386,598 Vol.
$1,386,598 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
$174,293 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$292,911 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$142,632 Vol.
4%
クラーケン
$362,121 Vol.
1%
Databricks
$65,157 Vol.
1%
Discord
$66,131 Vol.
1%
バイトダンス
$82,692 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$36,040 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$50,787 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$23,661 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$38,571 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$51,603 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its record $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer—dwarfing rivals—and Elon Musk's repeated hints at a Starlink spin-off public listing in 2025 or 2026 to unlock liquidity amid booming satellite internet revenue. xAI trails at 25.5%, buoyed by its ascent to a $50 billion valuation in a November private round and Musk's aggressive AI expansion via Grok model releases, though full IPO timelines remain speculative. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.3%) face governance hurdles and regulatory scrutiny delaying paths to public markets, while lower-tier options like Databricks lack comparable scale. Watch Musk's updates and funding announcements as key catalysts ahead of 2026.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$1,386,598終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its record $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer—dwarfing rivals—and Elon Musk's repeated hints at a Starlink spin-off public listing in 2025 or 2026 to unlock liquidity amid booming satellite internet revenue. xAI trails at 25.5%, buoyed by its ascent to a $50 billion valuation in a November private round and Musk's aggressive AI expansion via Grok model releases, though full IPO timelines remain speculative. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.3%) face governance hurdles and regulatory scrutiny delaying paths to public markets, while lower-tier options like Databricks lack comparable scale. Watch Musk's updates and funding announcements as key catalysts ahead of 2026.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,386,598終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its record $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer—dwarfing rivals—and Elon Musk's repeated hints at a Starlink spin-off public listing in 2025 or 2026 to unlock liquidity amid booming satellite internet revenue. xAI trails at 25.5%, buoyed by its ascent to a $50 billion valuation in a November private round and Musk's aggressive AI expansion via Grok model releases, though full IPO timelines remain speculative. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.3%) face governance hurdles and regulatory scrutiny delaying paths to public markets, while lower-tier options like Databricks lack comparable scale. Watch Musk's updates and funding announcements as key catalysts ahead of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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