SpaceX commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, propelled by reports of a confidential filing as early as this week and a targeted mid-year listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing all prior records—following its February acquisition of xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. This merger fuses xAI's artificial intelligence prowess, including the Grok large language model, with SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation and reusable rocket technology, amplifying growth prospects in AI-driven space data centers and autonomy. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid integration uncertainties, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% each despite their Q4 preparations. Traders eye filing confirmation and regulatory reviews as key near-term catalysts, though execution risks like delays persist in high-stakes tech debuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日スペースX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 4.0%
Waymo <1%
$1,610,578 Vol.
$1,610,578 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Waymo
1%
クラーケン
1%
Discord
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
スペースX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 4.0%
Waymo <1%
$1,610,578 Vol.
$1,610,578 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
$177,790 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,074 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,800 Vol.
4%
Waymo
$43,362 Vol.
1%
クラーケン
$371,637 Vol.
1%
Discord
$66,988 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$36,856 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$66,189 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$83,629 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,293 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,568 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,392 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, propelled by reports of a confidential filing as early as this week and a targeted mid-year listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing all prior records—following its February acquisition of xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. This merger fuses xAI's artificial intelligence prowess, including the Grok large language model, with SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation and reusable rocket technology, amplifying growth prospects in AI-driven space data centers and autonomy. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid integration uncertainties, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% each despite their Q4 preparations. Traders eye filing confirmation and regulatory reviews as key near-term catalysts, though execution risks like delays persist in high-stakes tech debuts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$1,610,578終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, propelled by reports of a confidential filing as early as this week and a targeted mid-year listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing all prior records—following its February acquisition of xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. This merger fuses xAI's artificial intelligence prowess, including the Grok large language model, with SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation and reusable rocket technology, amplifying growth prospects in AI-driven space data centers and autonomy. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid integration uncertainties, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% each despite their Q4 preparations. Traders eye filing confirmation and regulatory reviews as key near-term catalysts, though execution risks like delays persist in high-stakes tech debuts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,610,578終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026, propelled by reports of a confidential filing as early as this week and a targeted mid-year listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing all prior records—following its February acquisition of xAI in a $1.25 trillion all-stock deal. This merger fuses xAI's artificial intelligence prowess, including the Grok large language model, with SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation and reusable rocket technology, amplifying growth prospects in AI-driven space data centers and autonomy. xAI holds 25.5% odds amid integration uncertainties, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% each despite their Q4 preparations. Traders eye filing confirmation and regulatory reviews as key near-term catalysts, though execution risks like delays persist in high-stakes tech debuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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