Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日スペースX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Waymo <1%
$1,611,504 Vol.
$1,611,504 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Waymo
1%
Discord
<1%
クラーケン
<1%
Databricks
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
スペースX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 3.8%
Waymo <1%
$1,611,504 Vol.
$1,611,504 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
$177,892 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,250 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,845 Vol.
4%
Waymo
$43,387 Vol.
1%
Discord
$67,013 Vol.
<1%
クラーケン
$371,662 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$66,592 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$83,654 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$36,881 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,318 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,593 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$1,611,504終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,611,504終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports over the past 48 hours of imminent SEC filing—potentially this week—for a mid-June debut targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $40-80 billion raise, dwarfing rivals. Elon Musk's plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, alongside April briefings for institutional backers, underscores aggressive preparation amid Starlink's satellite broadband dominance and space launch leadership. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its early-2026 acquisition by SpaceX, integrating AI hardware and orbital computing ambitions into the pitch, though not the core focus. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 4% and 3.8% due to later Q4 timelines and lower projected valuations, with no comparable near-term catalysts. Uncertainties like regulatory hurdles or technical delays persist, but SpaceX's scale positions it as the frontrunner.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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