Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Republicans a 67.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Kansas governor election, driven by the state's strong Republican lean—evident in recent statewide races and legislative supermajorities—and the open seat left by term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly, who narrowly won as a moderate in 2018 and 2022. Recent polls, including a July SurveyUSA survey showing generic Republicans leading Democrats 51%-42% among likely voters, reinforce this edge amid national headwinds for Democrats following President Biden's withdrawal and VP Harris's nomination struggles. Key GOP contenders like Attorney General Kris Kobach and Senate President Ty Masterson have strong fundraising starts, while Democrats pin hopes on state Sen. Mike Thompson's early announcement. Primaries in August 2026 loom as pivotal, with swing state dynamics in play given Kansas's history of competitive governor races.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
69%
民主党
31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
69%
民主党
$2,197 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Republicans a 67.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Kansas governor election, driven by the state's strong Republican lean—evident in recent statewide races and legislative supermajorities—and the open seat left by term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly, who narrowly won as a moderate in 2018 and 2022. Recent polls, including a July SurveyUSA survey showing generic Republicans leading Democrats 51%-42% among likely voters, reinforce this edge amid national headwinds for Democrats following President Biden's withdrawal and VP Harris's nomination struggles. Key GOP contenders like Attorney General Kris Kobach and Senate President Ty Masterson have strong fundraising starts, while Democrats pin hopes on state Sen. Mike Thompson's early announcement. Primaries in August 2026 loom as pivotal, with swing state dynamics in play given Kansas's history of competitive governor races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$2,197終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Republicans a 67.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Kansas governor election, driven by the state's strong Republican lean—evident in recent statewide races and legislative supermajorities—and the open seat left by term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly, who narrowly won as a moderate in 2018 and 2022. Recent polls, including a July SurveyUSA survey showing generic Republicans leading Democrats 51%-42% among likely voters, reinforce this edge amid national headwinds for Democrats following President Biden's withdrawal and VP Harris's nomination struggles. Key GOP contenders like Attorney General Kris Kobach and Senate President Ty Masterson have strong fundraising starts, while Democrats pin hopes on state Sen. Mike Thompson's early announcement. Primaries in August 2026 loom as pivotal, with swing state dynamics in play given Kansas's history of competitive governor races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$2,197終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Republicans a 67.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Kansas governor election, driven by the state's strong Republican lean—evident in recent statewide races and legislative supermajorities—and the open seat left by term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly, who narrowly won as a moderate in 2018 and 2022. Recent polls, including a July SurveyUSA survey showing generic Republicans leading Democrats 51%-42% among likely voters, reinforce this edge amid national headwinds for Democrats following President Biden's withdrawal and VP Harris's nomination struggles. Key GOP contenders like Attorney General Kris Kobach and Senate President Ty Masterson have strong fundraising starts, while Democrats pin hopes on state Sen. Mike Thompson's early announcement. Primaries in August 2026 loom as pivotal, with swing state dynamics in play given Kansas's history of competitive governor races.
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