Incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly is term-limited after two consecutive terms, opening the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial race in a state with a strong Republican lean (R+13 PVI), where traders price GOP victory at 64.5% implied probability. Trump's decisive 17-point win over Harris in November 2024 solidified Republican down-ballot sweeps, boosting party momentum and enthusiasm ahead of August 2026 primaries. Democrats lack a clear successor to Kelly's bipartisan appeal that delivered narrow wins in 2018 and 2022, with no major candidate announcements in the past 30 days. Markets reflect historical base rates favoring Republicans in open-seat contests, though a strong Democratic nominee could narrow the gap in this battleground for moderates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
65%
民主党
30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$1,150 Vol.
65%
民主党
$2,201 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly is term-limited after two consecutive terms, opening the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial race in a state with a strong Republican lean (R+13 PVI), where traders price GOP victory at 64.5% implied probability. Trump's decisive 17-point win over Harris in November 2024 solidified Republican down-ballot sweeps, boosting party momentum and enthusiasm ahead of August 2026 primaries. Democrats lack a clear successor to Kelly's bipartisan appeal that delivered narrow wins in 2018 and 2022, with no major candidate announcements in the past 30 days. Markets reflect historical base rates favoring Republicans in open-seat contests, though a strong Democratic nominee could narrow the gap in this battleground for moderates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$3,351終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly is term-limited after two consecutive terms, opening the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial race in a state with a strong Republican lean (R+13 PVI), where traders price GOP victory at 64.5% implied probability. Trump's decisive 17-point win over Harris in November 2024 solidified Republican down-ballot sweeps, boosting party momentum and enthusiasm ahead of August 2026 primaries. Democrats lack a clear successor to Kelly's bipartisan appeal that delivered narrow wins in 2018 and 2022, with no major candidate announcements in the past 30 days. Markets reflect historical base rates favoring Republicans in open-seat contests, though a strong Democratic nominee could narrow the gap in this battleground for moderates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$3,351終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly is term-limited after two consecutive terms, opening the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial race in a state with a strong Republican lean (R+13 PVI), where traders price GOP victory at 64.5% implied probability. Trump's decisive 17-point win over Harris in November 2024 solidified Republican down-ballot sweeps, boosting party momentum and enthusiasm ahead of August 2026 primaries. Democrats lack a clear successor to Kelly's bipartisan appeal that delivered narrow wins in 2018 and 2022, with no major candidate announcements in the past 30 days. Markets reflect historical base rates favoring Republicans in open-seat contests, though a strong Democratic nominee could narrow the gap in this battleground for moderates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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