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政治·スペイン

ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？

Market icon
政治·スペイン

ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$139,766 Vol.

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$139,766 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero will not face arrest by March 31, driven by the complete absence of any active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities such as the Audiencia Nacional or Fiscalía General. No recent legal proceedings, official charges, or credible reports of wrongdoing have emerged in the past 30 days, with Zapatero continuing public activities including international mediation on Venezuela. Structural barriers include his status as a high-profile ex-leader without pending cases, aligning with historical precedents where former executives evade sudden arrests absent major scandals. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking indictments, unforeseen corruption probes, or emergency judicial actions, though none appear imminent.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero will not face arrest by March 31, driven by the complete absence of any active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities such as the Audiencia Nacional or Fiscalía General. No recent legal proceedings, official charges, or credible reports of wrongdoing have emerged in the past 30 days, with Zapatero continuing public activities including international mediation on Venezuela. Structural barriers include his status as a high-profile ex-leader without pending cases, aligning with historical precedents where former executives evade sudden arrests absent major scandals. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking indictments, unforeseen corruption probes, or emergency judicial actions, though none appear imminent.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero will not face arrest by March 31, driven by the complete absence of any active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities such as the Audiencia Nacional or Fiscalía General. No recent legal proceedings, official charges, or credible reports of wrongdoing have emerged in the past 30 days, with Zapatero continuing public activities including international mediation on Venezuela. Structural barriers include his status as a high-profile ex-leader without pending cases, aligning with historical precedents where former executives evade sudden arrests absent major scandals. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking indictments, unforeseen corruption probes, or emergency judicial actions, though none appear imminent.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% that former Spanish Prime Minister José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero will not face arrest by March 31, driven by the complete absence of any active criminal investigations, indictments, or arrest warrants from Spanish authorities such as the Audiencia Nacional or Fiscalía General. No recent legal proceedings, official charges, or credible reports of wrongdoing have emerged in the past 30 days, with Zapatero continuing public activities including international mediation on Venezuela. Structural barriers include his status as a high-profile ex-leader without pending cases, aligning with historical precedents where former executives evade sudden arrests absent major scandals. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking indictments, unforeseen corruption probes, or emergency judicial actions, though none appear imminent.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕される？」で1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、1¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に1%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？」は$139.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 16, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？」の現在のリーダーは「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕される？」でわずか1%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロが3月31日までに逮捕？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。