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イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?

Market icon

イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?

$63,757 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$63,757 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$20,186 Vol.

2%

4月30日

$43,571 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli Defense Forces have intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon since mid-March, sending additional troops on March 26 to expand incursions against Hezbollah amid fierce clashes and rocket fire from both sides. Airstrikes continue targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs—its political heartland—but no verified ground entry into central Beirut has occurred, anchoring trader consensus against near-term advancement. Israel's objective remains a security buffer zone up to the Litani River, roughly 80km south of Beirut, facing Hezbollah vows of resistance and Lebanese government warnings of broader threats. Escalation risks persist with overnight strikes reported March 28, while diplomatic signals from the US and UN could temper further northern pushes.

Israeli Defense Forces have intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon since mid-March, sending additional troops on March 26 to expand incursions against Hezbollah amid fierce clashes and rocket fire from both sides. Airstrikes continue targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs—its political heartland—but no verified ground entry into central Beirut has occurred, anchoring trader consensus against near-term advancement. Israel's objective remains a security buffer zone up to the Litani River, roughly 80km south of Beirut, facing Hezbollah vows of resistance and Lebanese government warnings of broader threats. Escalation risks persist with overnight strikes reported March 28, while diplomatic signals from the US and UN could temper further northern pushes.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli Defense Forces have intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon since mid-March, sending additional troops on March 26 to expand incursions against Hezbollah amid fierce clashes and rocket fire from both sides. Airstrikes continue targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs—its political heartland—but no verified ground entry into central Beirut has occurred, anchoring trader consensus against near-term advancement. Israel's objective remains a security buffer zone up to the Litani River, roughly 80km south of Beirut, facing Hezbollah vows of resistance and Lebanese government warnings of broader threats. Escalation risks persist with overnight strikes reported March 28, while diplomatic signals from the US and UN could temper further northern pushes.

Israeli Defense Forces have intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon since mid-March, sending additional troops on March 26 to expand incursions against Hezbollah amid fierce clashes and rocket fire from both sides. Airstrikes continue targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's southern suburbs—its political heartland—but no verified ground entry into central Beirut has occurred, anchoring trader consensus against near-term advancement. Israel's objective remains a security buffer zone up to the Litani River, roughly 80km south of Beirut, facing Hezbollah vows of resistance and Lebanese government warnings of broader threats. Escalation risks persist with overnight strikes reported March 28, while diplomatic signals from the US and UN could temper further northern pushes.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「4月30日」で8%、次いで「3月31日」が2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、8¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に8%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?」は$63.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 17, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?」の現在のリーダーは「4月30日」でわずか8%、「3月31日」が2%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イスラエル軍がベイルートに侵入したのは... ?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。