A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced on November 26, 2024, and effective from 4 a.m. local time on November 27, has dramatically shifted dynamics after weeks of intense escalation. Triggered by Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground incursion into southern Lebanon starting October 1, the agreement mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli Defense Forces pullback over 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with international monitors. Early implementation faces challenges from reported violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, amid ongoing Gaza tensions. Traders watch fragile compliance, potential breakdowns, and US President-elect Trump's incoming administration for signals on enforcement or escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$364,433 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
1%
6月30日
43%
4月30日
18%
$364,433 Vol.
3月31日
$325,605 Vol.
1%
6月30日
$37,948 Vol.
43%
4月30日
$879 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced on November 26, 2024, and effective from 4 a.m. local time on November 27, has dramatically shifted dynamics after weeks of intense escalation. Triggered by Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground incursion into southern Lebanon starting October 1, the agreement mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli Defense Forces pullback over 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with international monitors. Early implementation faces challenges from reported violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, amid ongoing Gaza tensions. Traders watch fragile compliance, potential breakdowns, and US President-elect Trump's incoming administration for signals on enforcement or escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
音量
$364,433終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced on November 26, 2024, and effective from 4 a.m. local time on November 27, has dramatically shifted dynamics after weeks of intense escalation. Triggered by Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground incursion into southern Lebanon starting October 1, the agreement mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli Defense Forces pullback over 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with international monitors. Early implementation faces challenges from reported violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, amid ongoing Gaza tensions. Traders watch fragile compliance, potential breakdowns, and US President-elect Trump's incoming administration for signals on enforcement or escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$364,433終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced on November 26, 2024, and effective from 4 a.m. local time on November 27, has dramatically shifted dynamics after weeks of intense escalation. Triggered by Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground incursion into southern Lebanon starting October 1, the agreement mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli Defense Forces pullback over 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with international monitors. Early implementation faces challenges from reported violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, amid ongoing Gaza tensions. Traders watch fragile compliance, potential breakdowns, and US President-elect Trump's incoming administration for signals on enforcement or escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問