Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first direct ballistic missile and drone barrage on southern Israel on March 28, 2026—their inaugural attack in the current US-Israel war with Iran—prompting trader scrutiny of potential Israeli retaliation against Houthi targets. Israeli defenses intercepted the projectiles, but the strike escalates longstanding Red Sea shipping disruptions and proxy threats from Yemen. Amid multi-front tensions involving Lebanon and Iraq, key factors include Israel's historical airstrikes on Houthi infrastructure, Tehran's proxy coordination, and risks to Bab al-Mandeb Strait navigation. Upcoming Houthi operations or diplomatic de-escalation signals could sway response probabilities before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$859,633 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
3月31日
63%
4月30日
90%
6月30日
92%
5月31日
92%
$859,633 Vol.
3月31日
$440,991 Vol.
63%
4月30日
$22,836 Vol.
90%
6月30日
$361,384 Vol.
92%
5月31日
$34,422 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first direct ballistic missile and drone barrage on southern Israel on March 28, 2026—their inaugural attack in the current US-Israel war with Iran—prompting trader scrutiny of potential Israeli retaliation against Houthi targets. Israeli defenses intercepted the projectiles, but the strike escalates longstanding Red Sea shipping disruptions and proxy threats from Yemen. Amid multi-front tensions involving Lebanon and Iraq, key factors include Israel's historical airstrikes on Houthi infrastructure, Tehran's proxy coordination, and risks to Bab al-Mandeb Strait navigation. Upcoming Houthi operations or diplomatic de-escalation signals could sway response probabilities before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 11:51 AM ET
音量
$859,633終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 11:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first direct ballistic missile and drone barrage on southern Israel on March 28, 2026—their inaugural attack in the current US-Israel war with Iran—prompting trader scrutiny of potential Israeli retaliation against Houthi targets. Israeli defenses intercepted the projectiles, but the strike escalates longstanding Red Sea shipping disruptions and proxy threats from Yemen. Amid multi-front tensions involving Lebanon and Iraq, key factors include Israel's historical airstrikes on Houthi infrastructure, Tehran's proxy coordination, and risks to Bab al-Mandeb Strait navigation. Upcoming Houthi operations or diplomatic de-escalation signals could sway response probabilities before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$859,633終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 11:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first direct ballistic missile and drone barrage on southern Israel on March 28, 2026—their inaugural attack in the current US-Israel war with Iran—prompting trader scrutiny of potential Israeli retaliation against Houthi targets. Israeli defenses intercepted the projectiles, but the strike escalates longstanding Red Sea shipping disruptions and proxy threats from Yemen. Amid multi-front tensions involving Lebanon and Iraq, key factors include Israel's historical airstrikes on Houthi infrastructure, Tehran's proxy coordination, and risks to Bab al-Mandeb Strait navigation. Upcoming Houthi operations or diplomatic de-escalation signals could sway response probabilities before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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