Escalating exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah drive trader consensus on potential military action, anchored by Israel's limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon launched October 1 to target Hezbollah infrastructure, following the September 27 airstrike that killed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Daily Israeli airstrikes continue in response to Hezbollah rocket barrages, with over 500 strikes reported in the past week amid civilian evacuations and rising casualties on both sides. Diplomatic efforts, including US-brokered ceasefire talks and a recent UN Security Council resolution urging de-escalation, face hurdles from mutual retaliation pledges. Upcoming developments like potential multinational oversight of a buffer zone or shifts post-US election could tip toward truce or further escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$2,993,878 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 20
100%
March 27
98%
March 28
96%
March 29
94%
March 30
93%
March 31
89%
$2,993,878 Vol.
March 20
$2,786,852 Vol.
100%
March 27
$29,440 Vol.
98%
March 28
$17,745 Vol.
96%
March 29
$10,879 Vol.
94%
March 30
$2,425 Vol.
93%
March 31
$22,738 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah drive trader consensus on potential military action, anchored by Israel's limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon launched October 1 to target Hezbollah infrastructure, following the September 27 airstrike that killed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Daily Israeli airstrikes continue in response to Hezbollah rocket barrages, with over 500 strikes reported in the past week amid civilian evacuations and rising casualties on both sides. Diplomatic efforts, including US-brokered ceasefire talks and a recent UN Security Council resolution urging de-escalation, face hurdles from mutual retaliation pledges. Upcoming developments like potential multinational oversight of a buffer zone or shifts post-US election could tip toward truce or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
音量
$2,993,878終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah drive trader consensus on potential military action, anchored by Israel's limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon launched October 1 to target Hezbollah infrastructure, following the September 27 airstrike that killed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Daily Israeli airstrikes continue in response to Hezbollah rocket barrages, with over 500 strikes reported in the past week amid civilian evacuations and rising casualties on both sides. Diplomatic efforts, including US-brokered ceasefire talks and a recent UN Security Council resolution urging de-escalation, face hurdles from mutual retaliation pledges. Upcoming developments like potential multinational oversight of a buffer zone or shifts post-US election could tip toward truce or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$2,993,878終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah drive trader consensus on potential military action, anchored by Israel's limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon launched October 1 to target Hezbollah infrastructure, following the September 27 airstrike that killed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Daily Israeli airstrikes continue in response to Hezbollah rocket barrages, with over 500 strikes reported in the past week amid civilian evacuations and rising casualties on both sides. Diplomatic efforts, including US-brokered ceasefire talks and a recent UN Security Council resolution urging de-escalation, face hurdles from mutual retaliation pledges. Upcoming developments like potential multinational oversight of a buffer zone or shifts post-US election could tip toward truce or further escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問