US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian petrochemical zones, bridges, and universities over the past 48 hours—killing at least five and wounding over 170—have prompted fresh Iranian missile barrages on central Israel and the downing of a US F-15 jet, with a pilot still missing as of April 5. Tehran rejected President Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 or face energy infrastructure attacks, dooming regional ceasefire efforts via Pakistan and Qatar. Ongoing mutual threats, US Marine deployments, and Hezbollah involvement underscore escalation risks, while stalled 15-point US proposals demanding nuclear dismantlement highlight diplomatic deadlock driving trader consensus toward extended hostilities absent breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$13,998,118 Vol.
2026/04/07
4月15日
4%
4月7日
1%
4月30日
13%
5月15日
28%
6月30日
52%
12月31日
82%
$13,998,118 Vol.
4月15日
$2,136,643 Vol.
4%
4月7日
$1,220,572 Vol.
1%
4月30日
$1,498,376 Vol.
13%
5月15日
$1,947,283 Vol.
28%
6月30日
$1,451,785 Vol.
52%
12月31日
$591,067 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian petrochemical zones, bridges, and universities over the past 48 hours—killing at least five and wounding over 170—have prompted fresh Iranian missile barrages on central Israel and the downing of a US F-15 jet, with a pilot still missing as of April 5. Tehran rejected President Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 or face energy infrastructure attacks, dooming regional ceasefire efforts via Pakistan and Qatar. Ongoing mutual threats, US Marine deployments, and Hezbollah involvement underscore escalation risks, while stalled 15-point US proposals demanding nuclear dismantlement highlight diplomatic deadlock driving trader consensus toward extended hostilities absent breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
音量
$13,998,118終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian petrochemical zones, bridges, and universities over the past 48 hours—killing at least five and wounding over 170—have prompted fresh Iranian missile barrages on central Israel and the downing of a US F-15 jet, with a pilot still missing as of April 5. Tehran rejected President Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 or face energy infrastructure attacks, dooming regional ceasefire efforts via Pakistan and Qatar. Ongoing mutual threats, US Marine deployments, and Hezbollah involvement underscore escalation risks, while stalled 15-point US proposals demanding nuclear dismantlement highlight diplomatic deadlock driving trader consensus toward extended hostilities absent breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
音量
$13,998,118終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian petrochemical zones, bridges, and universities over the past 48 hours—killing at least five and wounding over 170—have prompted fresh Iranian missile barrages on central Israel and the downing of a US F-15 jet, with a pilot still missing as of April 5. Tehran rejected President Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 or face energy infrastructure attacks, dooming regional ceasefire efforts via Pakistan and Qatar. Ongoing mutual threats, US Marine deployments, and Hezbollah involvement underscore escalation risks, while stalled 15-point US proposals demanding nuclear dismantlement highlight diplomatic deadlock driving trader consensus toward extended hostilities absent breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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