U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, with Tehran rejecting a March 25 fifteen-point American ceasefire proposal that demanded full handover to the IAEA, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and an end to enrichment. Despite President Trump's claims of productive weekend talks and earlier February signals via Oman of Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, no public agreement has emerged amid ongoing military strikes. IAEA's late February report verified Iran's near-10-ton stockpile, including near-weapons-grade material at hidden sites, heightening tensions. With the March 31 deadline approaching, traders eye potential last-minute diplomacy or escalation as pivotal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$35,215 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
13%
June 30
26%
December 31
34%
$35,215 Vol.
April 30
$6,819 Vol.
13%
June 30
$5,382 Vol.
26%
December 31
$23,015 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, with Tehran rejecting a March 25 fifteen-point American ceasefire proposal that demanded full handover to the IAEA, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and an end to enrichment. Despite President Trump's claims of productive weekend talks and earlier February signals via Oman of Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, no public agreement has emerged amid ongoing military strikes. IAEA's late February report verified Iran's near-10-ton stockpile, including near-weapons-grade material at hidden sites, heightening tensions. With the March 31 deadline approaching, traders eye potential last-minute diplomacy or escalation as pivotal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
音量
$35,215終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, with Tehran rejecting a March 25 fifteen-point American ceasefire proposal that demanded full handover to the IAEA, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and an end to enrichment. Despite President Trump's claims of productive weekend talks and earlier February signals via Oman of Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, no public agreement has emerged amid ongoing military strikes. IAEA's late February report verified Iran's near-10-ton stockpile, including near-weapons-grade material at hidden sites, heightening tensions. With the March 31 deadline approaching, traders eye potential last-minute diplomacy or escalation as pivotal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$35,215終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, with Tehran rejecting a March 25 fifteen-point American ceasefire proposal that demanded full handover to the IAEA, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and an end to enrichment. Despite President Trump's claims of productive weekend talks and earlier February signals via Oman of Iran's willingness for zero stockpiling, no public agreement has emerged amid ongoing military strikes. IAEA's late February report verified Iran's near-10-ton stockpile, including near-weapons-grade material at hidden sites, heightening tensions. With the March 31 deadline approaching, traders eye potential last-minute diplomacy or escalation as pivotal.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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