Incumbent Republican Jim Risch's strong position in solidly red Idaho drives the 90% trader consensus for a Republican Senate winner, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate hold since 1981 and no Democratic victory since 1974. Recent filing deadline passage on February 27 locked in a crowded Republican primary field—Risch plus challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—ahead of the May 19 vote, where Risch boasts $3.9 million cash-on-hand and a Trump endorsement. A March PPP poll (Risch 48%, independent Todd Achilles 34%) underscores limited general election threats from Democrats Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, David Roth or independents, despite Risch's age (83) and criticism over public lands votes; late scandals or primary upheaval could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
90%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$4,797 Vol.
90%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch's strong position in solidly red Idaho drives the 90% trader consensus for a Republican Senate winner, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate hold since 1981 and no Democratic victory since 1974. Recent filing deadline passage on February 27 locked in a crowded Republican primary field—Risch plus challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—ahead of the May 19 vote, where Risch boasts $3.9 million cash-on-hand and a Trump endorsement. A March PPP poll (Risch 48%, independent Todd Achilles 34%) underscores limited general election threats from Democrats Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, David Roth or independents, despite Risch's age (83) and criticism over public lands votes; late scandals or primary upheaval could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$4,797終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch's strong position in solidly red Idaho drives the 90% trader consensus for a Republican Senate winner, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate hold since 1981 and no Democratic victory since 1974. Recent filing deadline passage on February 27 locked in a crowded Republican primary field—Risch plus challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—ahead of the May 19 vote, where Risch boasts $3.9 million cash-on-hand and a Trump endorsement. A March PPP poll (Risch 48%, independent Todd Achilles 34%) underscores limited general election threats from Democrats Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, David Roth or independents, despite Risch's age (83) and criticism over public lands votes; late scandals or primary upheaval could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$4,797終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch's strong position in solidly red Idaho drives the 90% trader consensus for a Republican Senate winner, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate hold since 1981 and no Democratic victory since 1974. Recent filing deadline passage on February 27 locked in a crowded Republican primary field—Risch plus challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—ahead of the May 19 vote, where Risch boasts $3.9 million cash-on-hand and a Trump endorsement. A March PPP poll (Risch 48%, independent Todd Achilles 34%) underscores limited general election threats from Democrats Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, David Roth or independents, despite Risch's age (83) and criticism over public lands votes; late scandals or primary upheaval could shift odds.
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