Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch's (R) bid for a fifth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025, anchors trader consensus at 90% for a Republican Senate winner in deeply red Idaho, where the GOP has held both seats since 1981. The February 27 filing deadline revealed modest primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy on the GOP side, facing no fundraising threat—while Democrats field low-profile contenders Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and prior nominee David Roth with minimal resources. A March 16-17 PPP poll showed Risch leading Independent Todd Achilles 48-34% despite the incumbent's 32% approval, underscoring barriers to an upset ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
90%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$4,687 Vol.
90%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch's (R) bid for a fifth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025, anchors trader consensus at 90% for a Republican Senate winner in deeply red Idaho, where the GOP has held both seats since 1981. The February 27 filing deadline revealed modest primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy on the GOP side, facing no fundraising threat—while Democrats field low-profile contenders Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and prior nominee David Roth with minimal resources. A March 16-17 PPP poll showed Risch leading Independent Todd Achilles 48-34% despite the incumbent's 32% approval, underscoring barriers to an upset ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$4,687終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch's (R) bid for a fifth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025, anchors trader consensus at 90% for a Republican Senate winner in deeply red Idaho, where the GOP has held both seats since 1981. The February 27 filing deadline revealed modest primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy on the GOP side, facing no fundraising threat—while Democrats field low-profile contenders Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and prior nominee David Roth with minimal resources. A March 16-17 PPP poll showed Risch leading Independent Todd Achilles 48-34% despite the incumbent's 32% approval, underscoring barriers to an upset ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$4,687終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch's (R) bid for a fifth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement and $3.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025, anchors trader consensus at 90% for a Republican Senate winner in deeply red Idaho, where the GOP has held both seats since 1981. The February 27 filing deadline revealed modest primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy on the GOP side, facing no fundraising threat—while Democrats field low-profile contenders Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and prior nominee David Roth with minimal resources. A March 16-17 PPP poll showed Risch leading Independent Todd Achilles 48-34% despite the incumbent's 32% approval, underscoring barriers to an upset ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 general election.
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