Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
17°C or higher 37%
15°C 22%
16°C 19%
14°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
9%
9°C
11%
10°C
12%
11°C
9%
12°C
17%
13°C
17%
14°C
19%
15°C
22%
16°C
19%
17°C or higher
37%
17°C or higher 37%
15°C 22%
16°C 19%
14°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
$210 Vol.
1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
9%
9°C
$0 Vol.
11%
10°C
$0 Vol.
12%
11°C
$0 Vol.
9%
12°C
$0 Vol.
17%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C
$9 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
音量
$219終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$219終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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