Tesla shares' 6% decline last week to around $362, amid analyst consensus for soft Q1 2026 deliveries at 366,000 vehicles—down year-over-year due to EV tax credit losses, European self-driving delays, and intensifying competition—has driven trader sentiment on Polymarket toward an Elon Musk net worth below $640 billion by March 31, with 63% implied probability. Bloomberg's $637 billion estimate underscores this positioning, reflecting Musk's ~11% Tesla stake and 44% in the SpaceX-xAI merger valued at $1.03 trillion post-discounts. The 640-650 billion bin at 28.5% captures moderate rebound hopes, while higher brackets languish below 5% absent a sharp TSLA reversal before Monday's close. Q1 delivery figures due early April loom as post-resolution catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6400億ドル未満 63%
6400億〜6500億 28%
6500億〜6600億 5.3%
6600億〜6700億 3.6%
$894,815 Vol.
$894,815 Vol.
6400億ドル未満
63%
6400億〜6500億
28%
6500億〜6600億
5%
6600億〜6700億
4%
6700〜6800億
2%
6,800億~6,900億ドル
<1%
6900億〜7000億
2%
7000億~7100億
1%
7,100億ドル以上
2%
6400億ドル未満 63%
6400億〜6500億 28%
6500億〜6600億 5.3%
6600億〜6700億 3.6%
$894,815 Vol.
$894,815 Vol.
6400億ドル未満
63%
6400億〜6500億
28%
6500億〜6600億
5%
6600億〜6700億
4%
6700〜6800億
2%
6,800億~6,900億ドル
<1%
6900億〜7000億
2%
7000億~7100億
1%
7,100億ドル以上
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla shares' 6% decline last week to around $362, amid analyst consensus for soft Q1 2026 deliveries at 366,000 vehicles—down year-over-year due to EV tax credit losses, European self-driving delays, and intensifying competition—has driven trader sentiment on Polymarket toward an Elon Musk net worth below $640 billion by March 31, with 63% implied probability. Bloomberg's $637 billion estimate underscores this positioning, reflecting Musk's ~11% Tesla stake and 44% in the SpaceX-xAI merger valued at $1.03 trillion post-discounts. The 640-650 billion bin at 28.5% captures moderate rebound hopes, while higher brackets languish below 5% absent a sharp TSLA reversal before Monday's close. Q1 delivery figures due early April loom as post-resolution catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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