Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling below $640 billion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index by March 31, driven primarily by Tesla's recent share price weakness—closing at $360.41 on March 27 after a 7% pullback from mid-March highs amid EV sector headwinds and quarter-end profit-taking. This erodes roughly 20% of Musk's wealth tied to his ~13% Tesla stake, with Bloomberg's conservative private valuations for SpaceX (recently ~$800 billion post-xAI merger) and xAI amplifying downside sensitivity. The 28% odds on 640-650 billion reflect expectations of stabilization, though volatility persists ahead of resolution in three days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6400億ドル未満 64%
6400億〜6500億 28%
6500億〜6600億 4.8%
6600億〜6700億 3.5%
$894,821 Vol.
$894,821 Vol.
6400億ドル未満
64%
6400億〜6500億
28%
6500億〜6600億
5%
6600億〜6700億
4%
6700〜6800億
2%
6,800億~6,900億ドル
<1%
6900億〜7000億
2%
7000億~7100億
1%
7,100億ドル以上
2%
6400億ドル未満 64%
6400億〜6500億 28%
6500億〜6600億 4.8%
6600億〜6700億 3.5%
$894,821 Vol.
$894,821 Vol.
6400億ドル未満
64%
6400億〜6500億
28%
6500億〜6600億
5%
6600億〜6700億
4%
6700〜6800億
2%
6,800億~6,900億ドル
<1%
6900億〜7000億
2%
7000億~7100億
1%
7,100億ドル以上
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
マーケット開始日: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling below $640 billion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index by March 31, driven primarily by Tesla's recent share price weakness—closing at $360.41 on March 27 after a 7% pullback from mid-March highs amid EV sector headwinds and quarter-end profit-taking. This erodes roughly 20% of Musk's wealth tied to his ~13% Tesla stake, with Bloomberg's conservative private valuations for SpaceX (recently ~$800 billion post-xAI merger) and xAI amplifying downside sensitivity. The 28% odds on 640-650 billion reflect expectations of stabilization, though volatility persists ahead of resolution in three days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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