Market icon

2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？

Market icon

2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？

はい

7% chance
Polymarket

$107,954 Vol.

はい

7% chance
Polymarket

$107,954 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' strong consensus for no EU withdrawal before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit's completion in 2020, with the UK's turbulent exit deterring similar moves amid economic interdependence. Recent Polish polls showing 25% Polexit support prompted Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 16 warning of it as a "real threat," but he vowed to block it, underscoring pro-EU government resolve despite right-wing rhetoric from parties like Confederation. No referendums, snap elections, or coalition breakdowns signal exit paths in France, Netherlands, Italy, or Hungary, where leaders prioritize vetoes over departure. Late-breaking scandals or populist election surges could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.

Traders' strong consensus for no EU withdrawal before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit's completion in 2020, with the UK's turbulent exit deterring similar moves amid economic interdependence. Recent Polish polls showing 25% Polexit support prompted Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 16 warning of it as a "real threat," but he vowed to block it, underscoring pro-EU government resolve despite right-wing rhetoric from parties like Confederation. No referendums, snap elections, or coalition breakdowns signal exit paths in France, Netherlands, Italy, or Hungary, where leaders prioritize vetoes over departure. Late-breaking scandals or populist election surges could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' strong consensus for no EU withdrawal before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit's completion in 2020, with the UK's turbulent exit deterring similar moves amid economic interdependence. Recent Polish polls showing 25% Polexit support prompted Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 16 warning of it as a "real threat," but he vowed to block it, underscoring pro-EU government resolve despite right-wing rhetoric from parties like Confederation. No referendums, snap elections, or coalition breakdowns signal exit paths in France, Netherlands, Italy, or Hungary, where leaders prioritize vetoes over departure. Late-breaking scandals or populist election surges could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.

Traders' strong consensus for no EU withdrawal before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit's completion in 2020, with the UK's turbulent exit deterring similar moves amid economic interdependence. Recent Polish polls showing 25% Polexit support prompted Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 16 warning of it as a "real threat," but he vowed to block it, underscoring pro-EU government resolve despite right-wing rhetoric from parties like Confederation. No referendums, snap elections, or coalition breakdowns signal exit paths in France, Netherlands, Italy, or Hungary, where leaders prioritize vetoes over departure. Late-breaking scandals or populist election surges could shift odds, but structural barriers remain high.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」で7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、7¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に7%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」は$108Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 8, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」の現在のリーダーは「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」でわずか7%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2027年までにEUから脱退する国はありますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。