Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win, positions the GOP nominee as a commanding favorite in the open U.S. Senate race, fueling trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican victory. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's shift to the gubernatorial race has crowded the May 19 Republican primary, where Rep. Barry Moore has surged to the lead in recent polls following a Trump endorsement and Club for Growth's $1.5 million ad buy and supportive survey released days ago targeting rivals like AG Steve Marshall. Democrats lack a competitive profile amid sparse polling, with historical base rates showing no Senate flips in the state since 2017. Realistic challenges would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary runoff chaos, or extraordinary Democratic turnout surge before November 3—scenarios traders price as remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$5,956 Vol.
94%
民主党
$3,532 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win, positions the GOP nominee as a commanding favorite in the open U.S. Senate race, fueling trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican victory. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's shift to the gubernatorial race has crowded the May 19 Republican primary, where Rep. Barry Moore has surged to the lead in recent polls following a Trump endorsement and Club for Growth's $1.5 million ad buy and supportive survey released days ago targeting rivals like AG Steve Marshall. Democrats lack a competitive profile amid sparse polling, with historical base rates showing no Senate flips in the state since 2017. Realistic challenges would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary runoff chaos, or extraordinary Democratic turnout surge before November 3—scenarios traders price as remote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$9,488終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win, positions the GOP nominee as a commanding favorite in the open U.S. Senate race, fueling trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican victory. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's shift to the gubernatorial race has crowded the May 19 Republican primary, where Rep. Barry Moore has surged to the lead in recent polls following a Trump endorsement and Club for Growth's $1.5 million ad buy and supportive survey released days ago targeting rivals like AG Steve Marshall. Democrats lack a competitive profile amid sparse polling, with historical base rates showing no Senate flips in the state since 2017. Realistic challenges would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary runoff chaos, or extraordinary Democratic turnout surge before November 3—scenarios traders price as remote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$9,488終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance, underscored by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win, positions the GOP nominee as a commanding favorite in the open U.S. Senate race, fueling trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican victory. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville's shift to the gubernatorial race has crowded the May 19 Republican primary, where Rep. Barry Moore has surged to the lead in recent polls following a Trump endorsement and Club for Growth's $1.5 million ad buy and supportive survey released days ago targeting rivals like AG Steve Marshall. Democrats lack a competitive profile amid sparse polling, with historical base rates showing no Senate flips in the state since 2017. Realistic challenges would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary runoff chaos, or extraordinary Democratic turnout surge before November 3—scenarios traders price as remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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