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政治·プライマリ

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

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政治·プライマリ

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Rhett Marques 40%

John Mills 40%

Jerry Carl 39%

James Dees 38%

Polymarket
NEW

$18,527 Vol.

Rhett Marques 40%

John Mills 40%

Jerry Carl 39%

James Dees 38%

Polymarket
NEW

$18,527 Vol.

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

40%

John Mills

$0 Vol.

40%

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

39%

James Dees

$0 Vol.

38%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

27%

Austin Sidwell

$13,353 Vol.

18%

James Richardson

$5,174 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for March 5, trader consensus shows a razor-thin contest among incumbent Jerry Carl, challenger James Dees, state Rep. John Mills, and Rhett Marques, each hovering near 40% implied probability amid fragmented support. Recent internal polls from campaigns, including Dees' February survey claiming a narrow lead, underscore the lack of a frontrunner, while competitive fundraising—Dees self-funding heavily and Carl leveraging incumbency advantages—keeps odds bunched. Absent a late Trump endorsement or decisive debate moment, early voting turnout and final ad blitzes in this deep-red district could tip the balance toward a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$18,527
終了日
May 19, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for March 5, trader consensus shows a razor-thin contest among incumbent Jerry Carl, challenger James Dees, state Rep. John Mills, and Rhett Marques, each hovering near 40% implied probability amid fragmented support. Recent internal polls from campaigns, including Dees' February survey claiming a narrow lead, underscore the lack of a frontrunner, while competitive fundraising—Dees self-funding heavily and Carl leveraging incumbency advantages—keeps odds bunched. Absent a late Trump endorsement or decisive debate moment, early voting turnout and final ad blitzes in this deep-red district could tip the balance toward a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for March 5, trader consensus shows a razor-thin contest among incumbent Jerry Carl, challenger James Dees, state Rep. John Mills, and Rhett Marques, each hovering near 40% implied probability amid fragmented support. Recent internal polls from campaigns, including Dees' February survey claiming a narrow lead, underscore the lack of a frontrunner, while competitive fundraising—Dees self-funding heavily and Carl leveraging incumbency advantages—keeps odds bunched. Absent a late Trump endorsement or decisive debate moment, early voting turnout and final ad blitzes in this deep-red district could tip the balance toward a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「AL-01 Republican Primary Winner」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Rhett Marques」で40%、次いで「John Mills」が40%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、40¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に40%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「AL-01 Republican Primary Winner」は$18.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 26, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「AL-01 Republican Primary Winner」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「AL-01 Republican Primary Winner」の現在のフロントランナーは「Rhett Marques」で40%であり、市場がこの結果に40%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「John Mills」で40%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「AL-01 Republican Primary Winner」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。