Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?

<1% chance

$287,498 Vol.

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 13, 4:00 PM ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$287,498
Date de fin
May 16, 2025
Créé le
May 13, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 13, 4:00 PM ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?

<1% chance

$287,498 Vol.

À propos

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 13, 4:00 PM ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$287,498
Date de fin
May 16, 2025
Créé le
May 13, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 13, 4:00 PM ET, and May 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.