Eric Ciotti's commanding 92.5% implied probability in the Nice mayoral election market reflects recent polls showing him leading by wide margins, driven by National Rally's sustained momentum in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region after the July 2024 legislative vote. As the RN candidate, Ciotti benefits from local dissatisfaction with centrist policies and Estrosi's extended tenure, with traders pricing in his strong first-round performance potential under France's two-round system. Incumbent Christian Estrosi holds 7.6% on speculation of a comeback, but realistic challenges would require his endorsement consolidation, a surprise left-wing surge, or Ciotti scandal—none evident amid stable voter surveys ahead of the 2026 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQui remportera l'élection à la mairie de Nice ?
Qui remportera l'élection à la mairie de Nice ?
Eric Ciotti 92.5%
Christian Estrosi 7.6%
Jean-Marc Governatori <1%
Mireille Damiano <1%
$353,940 Vol.
$353,940 Vol.
Eric Ciotti
93%
Christian Estrosi
8%
Jean-Marc Governatori
<1%
Mireille Damiano
<1%
Juliette Chesnel-Leroux
<1%
Eric Ciotti 92.5%
Christian Estrosi 7.6%
Jean-Marc Governatori <1%
Mireille Damiano <1%
$353,940 Vol.
$353,940 Vol.
Eric Ciotti
93%
Christian Estrosi
8%
Jean-Marc Governatori
<1%
Mireille Damiano
<1%
Juliette Chesnel-Leroux
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
Marché ouvert : Nov 14, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eric Ciotti's commanding 92.5% implied probability in the Nice mayoral election market reflects recent polls showing him leading by wide margins, driven by National Rally's sustained momentum in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region after the July 2024 legislative vote. As the RN candidate, Ciotti benefits from local dissatisfaction with centrist policies and Estrosi's extended tenure, with traders pricing in his strong first-round performance potential under France's two-round system. Incumbent Christian Estrosi holds 7.6% on speculation of a comeback, but realistic challenges would require his endorsement consolidation, a surprise left-wing surge, or Ciotti scandal—none evident amid stable voter surveys ahead of the 2026 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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