In the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that began with preemptive strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran escalated retaliatory actions on March 29-30, launching drone strikes on a US air base in Jordan, missiles at Israel's Beersheba chemical facility injuring 11, and attacks on infrastructure in Gulf states hosting US forces, including Kuwait's power plant where one was killed and UAE's Sharjah. These follow continued combined force airstrikes degrading Iranian missile production and air defenses as of March 25. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, issuing fresh threats against US troops and regional universities. With the March 31 deadline approaching, trader consensus reflects Iran's persistent but constrained strike capacity amid rapid escalation risks and diplomatic impasse.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ?
Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ?
$462,361 Vol.
Dimona (Centre de Recherche Nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)
3%
Burj Khalifa
2%
Champ de Ghawar
8%
Champ de Safaniya
8%
Installation de traitement du pétrole d'Abqaiq
9%
Raffinerie d'Al Zour
9%
Leviathan Field
5%
Khurais Field
13%
Ras Tanura
7%
East–West Pipeline
5%
Champ/Habshan Complexe de traitement
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
14%
$462,361 Vol.
Dimona (Centre de Recherche Nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)
$256,881 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,360 Vol.
2%
Champ de Ghawar
$30,937 Vol.
8%
Champ de Safaniya
$39,942 Vol.
8%
Installation de traitement du pétrole d'Abqaiq
$39,634 Vol.
9%
Raffinerie d'Al Zour
$74,768 Vol.
9%
Leviathan Field
$1,261 Vol.
5%
Khurais Field
$4,997 Vol.
13%
Ras Tanura
$4,553 Vol.
7%
East–West Pipeline
$1,506 Vol.
5%
Champ/Habshan Complexe de traitement
$1,074 Vol.
10%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$5,447 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that began with preemptive strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran escalated retaliatory actions on March 29-30, launching drone strikes on a US air base in Jordan, missiles at Israel's Beersheba chemical facility injuring 11, and attacks on infrastructure in Gulf states hosting US forces, including Kuwait's power plant where one was killed and UAE's Sharjah. These follow continued combined force airstrikes degrading Iranian missile production and air defenses as of March 25. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, issuing fresh threats against US troops and regional universities. With the March 31 deadline approaching, trader consensus reflects Iran's persistent but constrained strike capacity amid rapid escalation risks and diplomatic impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$462,361Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that began with preemptive strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran escalated retaliatory actions on March 29-30, launching drone strikes on a US air base in Jordan, missiles at Israel's Beersheba chemical facility injuring 11, and attacks on infrastructure in Gulf states hosting US forces, including Kuwait's power plant where one was killed and UAE's Sharjah. These follow continued combined force airstrikes degrading Iranian missile production and air defenses as of March 25. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, issuing fresh threats against US troops and regional universities. With the March 31 deadline approaching, trader consensus reflects Iran's persistent but constrained strike capacity amid rapid escalation risks and diplomatic impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$462,361Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that began with preemptive strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran escalated retaliatory actions on March 29-30, launching drone strikes on a US air base in Jordan, missiles at Israel's Beersheba chemical facility injuring 11, and attacks on infrastructure in Gulf states hosting US forces, including Kuwait's power plant where one was killed and UAE's Sharjah. These follow continued combined force airstrikes degrading Iranian missile production and air defenses as of March 25. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, issuing fresh threats against US troops and regional universities. With the March 31 deadline approaching, trader consensus reflects Iran's persistent but constrained strike capacity amid rapid escalation risks and diplomatic impasse.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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