US-Iran tensions persist without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by proxy conflicts including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and militia strikes on US bases in Iraq and Syria. The most recent major development, Israel's limited strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, elicited Iranian threats of retaliation but no further direct escalation. US forces continue targeted airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis, while indirect nuclear talks via Oman remain stalled amid IAEA reports of Iran's uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels. A US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 eased regional pressures slightly, but Tehran's support for proxies and advancing nuclear program sustain low trader consensus for a bilateral truce by year-end, with Trump's incoming administration signaling renewed maximum pressure sanctions. Watch for potential militia responses or diplomatic signals in coming weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUS x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
US x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
$56,253,566 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
31 mars
3%
7 avril
13%
15 avril
24%
30 avril
40%
31 mai
54%
30 juin
62%
31 décembre
76%
$56,253,566 Vol.
31 mars
$35,436,161 Vol.
3%
7 avril
$879,706 Vol.
13%
15 avril
$5,451,487 Vol.
24%
30 avril
$6,149,927 Vol.
40%
31 mai
$2,164,381 Vol.
54%
30 juin
$2,218,004 Vol.
62%
31 décembre
$460,658 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran tensions persist without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by proxy conflicts including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and militia strikes on US bases in Iraq and Syria. The most recent major development, Israel's limited strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, elicited Iranian threats of retaliation but no further direct escalation. US forces continue targeted airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis, while indirect nuclear talks via Oman remain stalled amid IAEA reports of Iran's uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels. A US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 eased regional pressures slightly, but Tehran's support for proxies and advancing nuclear program sustain low trader consensus for a bilateral truce by year-end, with Trump's incoming administration signaling renewed maximum pressure sanctions. Watch for potential militia responses or diplomatic signals in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$56,253,566Marché ouvert
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran tensions persist without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by proxy conflicts including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and militia strikes on US bases in Iraq and Syria. The most recent major development, Israel's limited strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, elicited Iranian threats of retaliation but no further direct escalation. US forces continue targeted airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis, while indirect nuclear talks via Oman remain stalled amid IAEA reports of Iran's uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels. A US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 eased regional pressures slightly, but Tehran's support for proxies and advancing nuclear program sustain low trader consensus for a bilateral truce by year-end, with Trump's incoming administration signaling renewed maximum pressure sanctions. Watch for potential militia responses or diplomatic signals in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$56,253,566Marché ouvert
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions persist without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by proxy conflicts including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and militia strikes on US bases in Iraq and Syria. The most recent major development, Israel's limited strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, elicited Iranian threats of retaliation but no further direct escalation. US forces continue targeted airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis, while indirect nuclear talks via Oman remain stalled amid IAEA reports of Iran's uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels. A US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on November 27 eased regional pressures slightly, but Tehran's support for proxies and advancing nuclear program sustain low trader consensus for a bilateral truce by year-end, with Trump's incoming administration signaling renewed maximum pressure sanctions. Watch for potential militia responses or diplomatic signals in coming weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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