Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% chance of US airstrikes or ground strikes on Mexican soil by March 31, rising to 23% by December 31, reflecting strong Trump administration rhetoric vowing military action against cartels fueling the US fentanyl crisis but tempered by Mexico's firm rejection of intervention. Recent developments include Mexico's President Sheinbaum defying direct US strikes while intensifying anti-cartel operations, aided by a new US military-led intelligence task force that supported a February raid on CJNG leader El Mencho; Trump urged Latin American allies for joint missile strikes on March 8, and Sinaloa residents showed mixed openness amid heightened violence. Diplomatic cooperation persists ahead of 2026 World Cup co-hosting, with no verified US strikes on Mexican territory, underscoring sovereignty barriers and preference for intel-sharing over escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$3,218,369 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31 mars
<1%
31 décembre
24%
$3,218,369 Vol.
31 mars
$1,425,105 Vol.
<1%
31 décembre
$531,071 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% chance of US airstrikes or ground strikes on Mexican soil by March 31, rising to 23% by December 31, reflecting strong Trump administration rhetoric vowing military action against cartels fueling the US fentanyl crisis but tempered by Mexico's firm rejection of intervention. Recent developments include Mexico's President Sheinbaum defying direct US strikes while intensifying anti-cartel operations, aided by a new US military-led intelligence task force that supported a February raid on CJNG leader El Mencho; Trump urged Latin American allies for joint missile strikes on March 8, and Sinaloa residents showed mixed openness amid heightened violence. Diplomatic cooperation persists ahead of 2026 World Cup co-hosting, with no verified US strikes on Mexican territory, underscoring sovereignty barriers and preference for intel-sharing over escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$3,218,369Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% chance of US airstrikes or ground strikes on Mexican soil by March 31, rising to 23% by December 31, reflecting strong Trump administration rhetoric vowing military action against cartels fueling the US fentanyl crisis but tempered by Mexico's firm rejection of intervention. Recent developments include Mexico's President Sheinbaum defying direct US strikes while intensifying anti-cartel operations, aided by a new US military-led intelligence task force that supported a February raid on CJNG leader El Mencho; Trump urged Latin American allies for joint missile strikes on March 8, and Sinaloa residents showed mixed openness amid heightened violence. Diplomatic cooperation persists ahead of 2026 World Cup co-hosting, with no verified US strikes on Mexican territory, underscoring sovereignty barriers and preference for intel-sharing over escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,218,369Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 1% chance of US airstrikes or ground strikes on Mexican soil by March 31, rising to 23% by December 31, reflecting strong Trump administration rhetoric vowing military action against cartels fueling the US fentanyl crisis but tempered by Mexico's firm rejection of intervention. Recent developments include Mexico's President Sheinbaum defying direct US strikes while intensifying anti-cartel operations, aided by a new US military-led intelligence task force that supported a February raid on CJNG leader El Mencho; Trump urged Latin American allies for joint missile strikes on March 8, and Sinaloa residents showed mixed openness amid heightened violence. Diplomatic cooperation persists ahead of 2026 World Cup co-hosting, with no verified US strikes on Mexican territory, underscoring sovereignty barriers and preference for intel-sharing over escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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