Liberal Tatiana Auguste leads trader consensus at 59% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election, reflecting recent polls showing her support climbing to 44% amid effective local campaigning on economic recovery and housing affordability, while Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné holds at 40.5% buoyed by Quebec nationalist sentiment but hampered by party infighting. A Mainstreet Research poll released two days ago widened Auguste's margin from 4 to 8 points, driven by higher turnout expectations among anglophone and immigrant voters in the riding. Minor candidates like Conservative Maxime Beaudoin and NDP's Maria Cantore languish below 1% under first-past-the-post rules. The vote occurs October 21, with weather and last-minute endorsements as potential swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$30,467 Vol.
$30,467 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
59%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
41%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$30,467 Vol.
$30,467 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
59%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
41%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Liberal Tatiana Auguste leads trader consensus at 59% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election, reflecting recent polls showing her support climbing to 44% amid effective local campaigning on economic recovery and housing affordability, while Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné holds at 40.5% buoyed by Quebec nationalist sentiment but hampered by party infighting. A Mainstreet Research poll released two days ago widened Auguste's margin from 4 to 8 points, driven by higher turnout expectations among anglophone and immigrant voters in the riding. Minor candidates like Conservative Maxime Beaudoin and NDP's Maria Cantore languish below 1% under first-past-the-post rules. The vote occurs October 21, with weather and last-minute endorsements as potential swing factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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