Manuel Saavedra's 92.8% trader consensus in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election stems from his commanding poll leads, consistently above 50% in recent Ciesmori and other surveys, bolstering Creemos' stronghold in Bolivia's pro-business Santa Cruz region amid anti-MAS dynamics. Recent developments, including strong campaign momentum and no significant gaffes by rivals like Angélica Sosa (MAS), have widened his edge, reflecting local priorities on economic growth and autonomy. While dominant, scenarios like a MAS voter turnout surge, opponent alliances, or legal disputes over ballots could narrow odds, though markets price these as low-probability risks ahead of voting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection du maire de Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Bolivie)
Vainqueur de l'élection du maire de Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Bolivie)
Manuel Saavedra 92.1%
Angélica Sosa 4.4%
Alfredo Solares 2.1%
Soo Hyun Chung <1%
$695,962 Vol.
$695,962 Vol.

Manuel Saavedra
92%

Angélica Sosa
4%

Alfredo Solares
2%

Soo Hyun Chung
<1%

Jhonny Fernández
<1%

Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine
<1%

Félix Oros
<1%

Oscar Vargas
<1%

Vicente Cuéllar
<1%

José Gary Áñez
<1%

Luciano Negrete
<1%
Manuel Saavedra 92.1%
Angélica Sosa 4.4%
Alfredo Solares 2.1%
Soo Hyun Chung <1%
$695,962 Vol.
$695,962 Vol.

Manuel Saavedra
92%

Angélica Sosa
4%

Alfredo Solares
2%

Soo Hyun Chung
<1%

Jhonny Fernández
<1%

Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine
<1%

Félix Oros
<1%

Oscar Vargas
<1%

Vicente Cuéllar
<1%

José Gary Áñez
<1%

Luciano Negrete
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Manuel Saavedra's 92.8% trader consensus in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election stems from his commanding poll leads, consistently above 50% in recent Ciesmori and other surveys, bolstering Creemos' stronghold in Bolivia's pro-business Santa Cruz region amid anti-MAS dynamics. Recent developments, including strong campaign momentum and no significant gaffes by rivals like Angélica Sosa (MAS), have widened his edge, reflecting local priorities on economic growth and autonomy. While dominant, scenarios like a MAS voter turnout surge, opponent alliances, or legal disputes over ballots could narrow odds, though markets price these as low-probability risks ahead of voting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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