JD Vance holds a slim edge in Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market at 18% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on his vice presidency as a incumbency advantage akin to historical vice presidential paths to nomination, solidified by the Trump administration's recent formation. Gavin Newsom follows closely at 17%, driven by his California governorship and proactive national engagements amid Democratic soul-searching post-2024 election losses. Marco Rubio's 11% stake ties to his Senate tenure and Trump cabinet considerations. This tight race among frontrunners highlights early-cycle uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, primary endorsements, fundraising, swing state performances, and potential scandals or withdrawals likely to drive separation before the 2028 primaries.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection présidentielle de 2028
Vainqueur de l'élection présidentielle de 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$454,896,050 Vol.
$454,896,050 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Titre du groupe d'éléments : Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$454,896,050 Vol.
$454,896,050 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Titre du groupe d'éléments : Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Marché ouvert : Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance holds a slim edge in Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market at 18% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on his vice presidency as a incumbency advantage akin to historical vice presidential paths to nomination, solidified by the Trump administration's recent formation. Gavin Newsom follows closely at 17%, driven by his California governorship and proactive national engagements amid Democratic soul-searching post-2024 election losses. Marco Rubio's 11% stake ties to his Senate tenure and Trump cabinet considerations. This tight race among frontrunners highlights early-cycle uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, primary endorsements, fundraising, swing state performances, and potential scandals or withdrawals likely to drive separation before the 2028 primaries.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes