US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military sites and infrastructure persist into March 31, with recent US B-52 deployments and a strike on Isfahan generating visible fireballs, as confirmed by Pentagon updates. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the coming days as "decisive" amid ongoing degradation of Iran's missile capabilities, while President Trump told NBC News operations are "coming to an end" without announcing a ceasefire. Absent verifiable cessation of attacks on Iranian soil per market rules—now day 32 since February 28 launch—traders price 100% consensus for continuation through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or no-strike declaration could challenge this, though Tehran vows retaliation until victory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAction militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 100.0%
11 mars <1%
12 mars <1%
13 mars <1%
$3,042,109 Vol.
$3,042,109 Vol.
31 mars 2026
11 mars
Non
12 mars
Non
13 mars
Non
14 mars
Non
15 mars
Non
16 mars
Non
17 mars
Non
18 mars
Non
19 mars
Non
20 mars
Non
21 mars
Non
22 mars
Non
23 mars
Non
24 mars
Non
25 mars
Non
26 mars
Non
27 mars
Non
28 mars
Non
29 mars
Non
30 mars
Non
31 mars
Non
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
Oui
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 100.0%
11 mars <1%
12 mars <1%
13 mars <1%
$3,042,109 Vol.
$3,042,109 Vol.
31 mars 2026
11 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
12 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
13 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
14 mars
$132,620 Vol.
Non
15 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
16 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
17 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
18 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
19 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
20 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
21 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
22 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
23 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
24 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
25 mars
$0 Vol.
Non
26 mars
$326,382 Vol.
Non
27 mars
$340,372 Vol.
Non
28 mars
$348,513 Vol.
Non
29 mars
$337,518 Vol.
Non
30 mars
$317,133 Vol.
Non
31 mars
$446,292 Vol.
Non
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
$793,280 Vol.
Oui
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military sites and infrastructure persist into March 31, with recent US B-52 deployments and a strike on Isfahan generating visible fireballs, as confirmed by Pentagon updates. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the coming days as "decisive" amid ongoing degradation of Iran's missile capabilities, while President Trump told NBC News operations are "coming to an end" without announcing a ceasefire. Absent verifiable cessation of attacks on Iranian soil per market rules—now day 32 since February 28 launch—traders price 100% consensus for continuation through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or no-strike declaration could challenge this, though Tehran vows retaliation until victory.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$3,042,109Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military sites and infrastructure persist into March 31, with recent US B-52 deployments and a strike on Isfahan generating visible fireballs, as confirmed by Pentagon updates. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the coming days as "decisive" amid ongoing degradation of Iran's missile capabilities, while President Trump told NBC News operations are "coming to an end" without announcing a ceasefire. Absent verifiable cessation of attacks on Iranian soil per market rules—now day 32 since February 28 launch—traders price 100% consensus for continuation through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or no-strike declaration could challenge this, though Tehran vows retaliation until victory.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,042,109Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military sites and infrastructure persist into March 31, with recent US B-52 deployments and a strike on Isfahan generating visible fireballs, as confirmed by Pentagon updates. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the coming days as "decisive" amid ongoing degradation of Iran's missile capabilities, while President Trump told NBC News operations are "coming to an end" without announcing a ceasefire. Absent verifiable cessation of attacks on Iranian soil per market rules—now day 32 since February 28 launch—traders price 100% consensus for continuation through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or no-strike declaration could challenge this, though Tehran vows retaliation until victory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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