US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their sixth week since late February, continue unabated amid escalating Iranian retaliation, including the April 3 downing of a US F-15E and A-10—the first confirmed aircraft losses—and a massive April 5 barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, Bahrain's oil facilities, Kuwait's petrochemical zones, and UAE sites. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states seek UN authorization for force to secure the waterway. No full calendar day without US or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil has occurred, sustaining active hostilities; trader focus remains on stalled objectives like degrading Iran's missile capabilities and proxy networks, with potential for further US force buildup or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$79,351 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
April 5
1%
April 6
<1%
April 7
3%
April 8
4%
April 9
3%
April 10
4%
April 11
4%
April 12
6%
April 13
8%
April 14
8%
April 15
9%
April 16
36%
April 17
43%
April 18
42%
April 19
45%
April 20
41%
April 21
43%
April 22
43%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
29%
April 26
44%
April 27
44%
April 28
44%
April 29
43%
April 30
26%
$79,351 Vol.
April 5
$2,161 Vol.
1%
April 6
$6,943 Vol.
<1%
April 7
$921 Vol.
3%
April 8
$237 Vol.
4%
April 9
$2,904 Vol.
3%
April 10
$20 Vol.
4%
April 11
$16 Vol.
4%
April 12
$7 Vol.
6%
April 13
$0 Vol.
8%
April 14
$4,755 Vol.
8%
April 15
$180 Vol.
9%
April 16
$0 Vol.
36%
April 17
$0 Vol.
43%
April 18
$54 Vol.
42%
April 19
$1 Vol.
45%
April 20
$0 Vol.
41%
April 21
$0 Vol.
43%
April 22
$0 Vol.
43%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,777 Vol.
29%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$39 Vol.
44%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$1 Vol.
43%
April 30
$23,196 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their sixth week since late February, continue unabated amid escalating Iranian retaliation, including the April 3 downing of a US F-15E and A-10—the first confirmed aircraft losses—and a massive April 5 barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, Bahrain's oil facilities, Kuwait's petrochemical zones, and UAE sites. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states seek UN authorization for force to secure the waterway. No full calendar day without US or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil has occurred, sustaining active hostilities; trader focus remains on stalled objectives like degrading Iran's missile capabilities and proxy networks, with potential for further US force buildup or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$79,351Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their sixth week since late February, continue unabated amid escalating Iranian retaliation, including the April 3 downing of a US F-15E and A-10—the first confirmed aircraft losses—and a massive April 5 barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, Bahrain's oil facilities, Kuwait's petrochemical zones, and UAE sites. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states seek UN authorization for force to secure the waterway. No full calendar day without US or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil has occurred, sustaining active hostilities; trader focus remains on stalled objectives like degrading Iran's missile capabilities and proxy networks, with potential for further US force buildup or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,351Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their sixth week since late February, continue unabated amid escalating Iranian retaliation, including the April 3 downing of a US F-15E and A-10—the first confirmed aircraft losses—and a massive April 5 barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, Bahrain's oil facilities, Kuwait's petrochemical zones, and UAE sites. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states seek UN authorization for force to secure the waterway. No full calendar day without US or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil has occurred, sustaining active hostilities; trader focus remains on stalled objectives like degrading Iran's missile capabilities and proxy networks, with potential for further US force buildup or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes