Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's longstanding insistence on its "inalienable right" to enrich, as reiterated by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff last week amid failed prior talks. A February IAEA report revealed Iran blocking inspectors from key sites like Isfahan, where highly enriched uranium is stored underground, preventing verification of any enrichment suspension. Although President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6 at Tehran's request—citing talks "going very well"—earlier negotiations collapsed without zero-enrichment concessions, sparking war; Iranian hardliners now reportedly advocate weaponization, underscoring slim prospects for a pre-deadline deal despite diplomatic posturing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 avril ?
L'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 avril ?
Oui
$136,886 Vol.
$136,886 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Oui
$136,886 Vol.
$136,886 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's longstanding insistence on its "inalienable right" to enrich, as reiterated by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff last week amid failed prior talks. A February IAEA report revealed Iran blocking inspectors from key sites like Isfahan, where highly enriched uranium is stored underground, preventing verification of any enrichment suspension. Although President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6 at Tehran's request—citing talks "going very well"—earlier negotiations collapsed without zero-enrichment concessions, sparking war; Iranian hardliners now reportedly advocate weaponization, underscoring slim prospects for a pre-deadline deal despite diplomatic posturing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$136,886Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's longstanding insistence on its "inalienable right" to enrich, as reiterated by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff last week amid failed prior talks. A February IAEA report revealed Iran blocking inspectors from key sites like Isfahan, where highly enriched uranium is stored underground, preventing verification of any enrichment suspension. Although President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6 at Tehran's request—citing talks "going very well"—earlier negotiations collapsed without zero-enrichment concessions, sparking war; Iranian hardliners now reportedly advocate weaponization, underscoring slim prospects for a pre-deadline deal despite diplomatic posturing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$136,886Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's longstanding insistence on its "inalienable right" to enrich, as reiterated by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff last week amid failed prior talks. A February IAEA report revealed Iran blocking inspectors from key sites like Isfahan, where highly enriched uranium is stored underground, preventing verification of any enrichment suspension. Although President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6 at Tehran's request—citing talks "going very well"—earlier negotiations collapsed without zero-enrichment concessions, sparking war; Iranian hardliners now reportedly advocate weaponization, underscoring slim prospects for a pre-deadline deal despite diplomatic posturing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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