Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty over the scope of Israeli military actions in April amid an intensifying multi-front conflict, with 2, 3, and ≥4 countries each trading near 40-42% implied probabilities and ≤1 at just 7.5%. Recent drivers include Israel's vow yesterday to "intensify and expand" strikes against Iran following the killing of its navy chief, alongside deepened ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and ongoing degradation of Iranian missile infrastructure. IDF statements confirm operational plans extending through mid-April Passover, targeting thousands of sites across Iran, but the exact geographic spread remains fluid. The tight race persists due to balanced risks of escalation—such as Houthi attacks from Yemen or Syrian incursions—versus potential U.S.-brokered de-escalation; a major Iranian retaliation or diplomatic breakthrough could decisively shift odds toward higher tallies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 8%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
8%
2
44%
3
43%
≥4
41%
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 8%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$36 Vol.
8%
2
$1 Vol.
44%
3
$0 Vol.
43%
≥4
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty over the scope of Israeli military actions in April amid an intensifying multi-front conflict, with 2, 3, and ≥4 countries each trading near 40-42% implied probabilities and ≤1 at just 7.5%. Recent drivers include Israel's vow yesterday to "intensify and expand" strikes against Iran following the killing of its navy chief, alongside deepened ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and ongoing degradation of Iranian missile infrastructure. IDF statements confirm operational plans extending through mid-April Passover, targeting thousands of sites across Iran, but the exact geographic spread remains fluid. The tight race persists due to balanced risks of escalation—such as Houthi attacks from Yemen or Syrian incursions—versus potential U.S.-brokered de-escalation; a major Iranian retaliation or diplomatic breakthrough could decisively shift odds toward higher tallies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$37Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty over the scope of Israeli military actions in April amid an intensifying multi-front conflict, with 2, 3, and ≥4 countries each trading near 40-42% implied probabilities and ≤1 at just 7.5%. Recent drivers include Israel's vow yesterday to "intensify and expand" strikes against Iran following the killing of its navy chief, alongside deepened ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and ongoing degradation of Iranian missile infrastructure. IDF statements confirm operational plans extending through mid-April Passover, targeting thousands of sites across Iran, but the exact geographic spread remains fluid. The tight race persists due to balanced risks of escalation—such as Houthi attacks from Yemen or Syrian incursions—versus potential U.S.-brokered de-escalation; a major Iranian retaliation or diplomatic breakthrough could decisively shift odds toward higher tallies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$37Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty over the scope of Israeli military actions in April amid an intensifying multi-front conflict, with 2, 3, and ≥4 countries each trading near 40-42% implied probabilities and ≤1 at just 7.5%. Recent drivers include Israel's vow yesterday to "intensify and expand" strikes against Iran following the killing of its navy chief, alongside deepened ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and ongoing degradation of Iranian missile infrastructure. IDF statements confirm operational plans extending through mid-April Passover, targeting thousands of sites across Iran, but the exact geographic spread remains fluid. The tight race persists due to balanced risks of escalation—such as Houthi attacks from Yemen or Syrian incursions—versus potential U.S.-brokered de-escalation; a major Iranian retaliation or diplomatic breakthrough could decisively shift odds toward higher tallies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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