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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

2 87%

3 10.0%

4 2.6%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$202,072 Vol.

2 87%

3 10.0%

4 2.6%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$202,072 Vol.

2

$34,515 Vol.

87%

3

$17,896 Vol.

10%

4

$15,358 Vol.

3%

5

$18,834 Vol.

1%

>5

$43,570 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 23–29, with an 87.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and a M6.5 east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28 per real-time USGS monitoring, aligning with historical global rates of roughly one such quake per week under normal conditions, modeled as a Poisson process without current fault swarms, aftershocks, or tectonic hotspots elevating risks. The final day carries low odds of another due to absent precursors like foreshocks; continuous USGS seismic data updates could shift sentiment if new activity emerges.

Trader consensus heavily favors exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 23–29, with an 87.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and a M6.5 east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28 per real-time USGS monitoring, aligning with historical global rates of roughly one such quake per week under normal conditions, modeled as a Poisson process without current fault swarms, aftershocks, or tectonic hotspots elevating risks. The final day carries low odds of another due to absent precursors like foreshocks; continuous USGS seismic data updates could shift sentiment if new activity emerges.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 23–29, with an 87.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and a M6.5 east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28 per real-time USGS monitoring, aligning with historical global rates of roughly one such quake per week under normal conditions, modeled as a Poisson process without current fault swarms, aftershocks, or tectonic hotspots elevating risks. The final day carries low odds of another due to absent precursors like foreshocks; continuous USGS seismic data updates could shift sentiment if new activity emerges.

Trader consensus heavily favors exactly two magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from March 23–29, with an 87.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed events: a M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and a M6.5 east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28 per real-time USGS monitoring, aligning with historical global rates of roughly one such quake per week under normal conditions, modeled as a Poisson process without current fault swarms, aftershocks, or tectonic hotspots elevating risks. The final day carries low odds of another due to absent precursors like foreshocks; continuous USGS seismic data updates could shift sentiment if new activity emerges.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 2 » à 87%, suivi de « 3 » à 10%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 87¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 87% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29? » a généré $202.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 20, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29? » est « 2 » à 87%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 87% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 3 » à 10%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.