Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature around 12–14°C in Istanbul on April 8, with 14°C leading at the implied 30.5% probability, reflecting tight clustering from ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in that narrow range amid model spread of 1–2°C. This positioning stems from a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region, steered by a lingering upper-level trough, which suppresses daytime heating despite seasonal norms near 14°C for early April; recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates confirm temperatures at or slightly above norms without anomalous warming signals. Low odds for extremes underscore climatological rarity of sub-10°C or 17°C+ highs this time of year. New model runs and MGM briefings through April 7 will likely sharpen differentiation as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 8 avril ?
La température la plus élevée à Istanbul le 8 avril ?
14°C 30%
12°C 21%
13°C 14%
15°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
9°C ou moins
2%
10°C
14%
11°C
16%
12°C
21%
13°C
23%
14°C
30%
15°C
12%
16°C
9%
17°C
10%
18°C
4%
19°C ou plus
4%
14°C 30%
12°C 21%
13°C 14%
15°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 avr. 2026
9°C ou moins
$289 Vol.
2%
10°C
$46 Vol.
14%
11°C
$29 Vol.
16%
12°C
$29 Vol.
21%
13°C
$29 Vol.
23%
14°C
$44 Vol.
30%
15°C
$79 Vol.
12%
16°C
$29 Vol.
9%
17°C
$29 Vol.
10%
18°C
$48 Vol.
4%
19°C ou plus
$83 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature around 12–14°C in Istanbul on April 8, with 14°C leading at the implied 30.5% probability, reflecting tight clustering from ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in that narrow range amid model spread of 1–2°C. This positioning stems from a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region, steered by a lingering upper-level trough, which suppresses daytime heating despite seasonal norms near 14°C for early April; recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates confirm temperatures at or slightly above norms without anomalous warming signals. Low odds for extremes underscore climatological rarity of sub-10°C or 17°C+ highs this time of year. New model runs and MGM briefings through April 7 will likely sharpen differentiation as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$736Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature around 12–14°C in Istanbul on April 8, with 14°C leading at the implied 30.5% probability, reflecting tight clustering from ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in that narrow range amid model spread of 1–2°C. This positioning stems from a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region, steered by a lingering upper-level trough, which suppresses daytime heating despite seasonal norms near 14°C for early April; recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates confirm temperatures at or slightly above norms without anomalous warming signals. Low odds for extremes underscore climatological rarity of sub-10°C or 17°C+ highs this time of year. New model runs and MGM briefings through April 7 will likely sharpen differentiation as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$736Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature around 12–14°C in Istanbul on April 8, with 14°C leading at the implied 30.5% probability, reflecting tight clustering from ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in that narrow range amid model spread of 1–2°C. This positioning stems from a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region, steered by a lingering upper-level trough, which suppresses daytime heating despite seasonal norms near 14°C for early April; recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates confirm temperatures at or slightly above norms without anomalous warming signals. Low odds for extremes underscore climatological rarity of sub-10°C or 17°C+ highs this time of year. New model runs and MGM briefings through April 7 will likely sharpen differentiation as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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