The race for Florida’s 22nd congressional district remains tight because redistricting produced an open seat with mixed partisan signals—Trump carried the new lines by roughly 10–11 points in 2024 while Biden won the territory by three in 2020. Recent polls show small margins or ties, prompting race raters including Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball to classify it a toss-up after earlier Lean Republican assessments. Both nominees—educator Pia Dandiya, who won her primary decisively, and businessman Casey Askar, who prevailed in a crowded Republican field—have raised comparable sums exceeding $2 million and face negative mailers on data-center investments and business practices. Trader prices near 55-45 reflect this balance, with separation likely hinging on turnout in Palm Beach and Broward counties, any late economic messaging, or additional polling before the November 3 general election.