Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 tweets in March 2026 at 40.2% implied probability, with secondary clusters at 1280-1319 (16.4%) and 1320-1359 (16.3%), reflecting extrapolation from his recent monthly volumes averaging 1200-2000 posts amid intense political activity. Key drivers include historical March baselines—1123 tweets in 2023, rising to over 1400 in 2024—boosted by post-election surges exceeding 90 daily posts during the Trump campaign and DOGE advisory role. Recent developments, like Musk's November 2024 tweet spike tied to government efficiency announcements and X platform changes amplifying his reach, position higher bins as frontrunners, though sustained engagement remains uncertain ahead of 2026 dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1400+ 40.0%
1320-1359 16.6%
1280-1319 16.1%
1360-1399 13.7%
$2,946,124 Vol.
$2,946,124 Vol.
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
16%
1320-1359
17%
1360-1399
14%
1400+
40%
1400+ 40.0%
1320-1359 16.6%
1280-1319 16.1%
1360-1399 13.7%
$2,946,124 Vol.
$2,946,124 Vol.
840-879
<1%
880-919
<1%
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
16%
1320-1359
17%
1360-1399
14%
1400+
40%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 tweets in March 2026 at 40.2% implied probability, with secondary clusters at 1280-1319 (16.4%) and 1320-1359 (16.3%), reflecting extrapolation from his recent monthly volumes averaging 1200-2000 posts amid intense political activity. Key drivers include historical March baselines—1123 tweets in 2023, rising to over 1400 in 2024—boosted by post-election surges exceeding 90 daily posts during the Trump campaign and DOGE advisory role. Recent developments, like Musk's November 2024 tweet spike tied to government efficiency announcements and X platform changes amplifying his reach, position higher bins as frontrunners, though sustained engagement remains uncertain ahead of 2026 dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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